The recent uproar about the sequence of warnings arose from a misunderstanding of the rapid evolution of Gula and the operations of our warning system. The concerns expressed are understandable and even healthy for our Meteorological Service. But questioning the professionalism of our meteorologists, some of whom are respected scientists of international stature, was ill-advised.

A tropical cyclone may develop in an explosive manner. It may also decay in a matter of an hour or so if the energy derived mostly from the water vapour of the warm ocean below is cut off or reduced. This is often seen when cyclones move over Madagascar or over the cooler ocean to the South of Mauritius. In the morning of 31 January, satellite imageries of Gula bear testimony to such an accelerated decay. Gula, a relatively small-sized tropical depression, moved over the colder water in the vicinity of Mauritius and was simultaneously invaded by cooler and drier air driven from the South by former depression Fame. No world centre had anticipated the rapid weakening either. The Meteorological Service showed professionalism in conveying the real situation as it unfolded, though it meant a significant change from its earlier forecasts. It did not try to make excuses, hide behind jargon or adopt face saving artifice such as a gradual downgrading of the warning level.

We can learn from others. The 1987 great storm in UK, the 1999 severe storm in France and other parts of Europe and the 2006 hurricane Katrina in USA caused considerable loss of life and property. In the aftermath, the forecasts were reviewed and the respective national Meteorological Services strengthened with more powerful supercomputers, more elaborate satellite imageries, improved telecommunications system, specialised personnel and research funds. Communications with the public and various sectors of the economy were improved.

However, the authority to issue warnings remained with the respective meteorological services. It is the optimum way to take full advantage of the high level of specialization and international cooperation. Taking into account socioeconomic factors before issuing cyclone warnings is considered impractical and counterproductive. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that sets standard requires that warnings be issued by a sole national authority namely the Meteorological Services. The highest priority should be given to the security and safety of life and property. This standard practice is adopted by all nations. It would therefore be a retrograde and unsettling step for the Republic of Mauritius to change the current authority for issuing warning. The nation has been superbly served as we have had no loss of human life directly attributable to a cyclone for the last three decades or more. The science of meteorology supports almost every socio-economic and environmental sector. With climate change, rapid evolution of natural disasters is bound to occur more frequently. The Tropical Cyclone Committee, as the national coordinating body for natural disasters, could consider ways of improving preparedness when dealing with rapidly evolving situation be it a cyclone, a sea swell or a tsunami. The growing sophistication of our economy requires improved communication with the public, private sector and the media.