The government can breathe: the results of the survey conducted by Synthèses for l?express over the period 24th to 27th February show it has the support of the population. 73% of the people questioned said they were satisfied with the performance of Paul Bérenger as prime minister. However, this does not mean that the government can expect to end its term serenely: the dissatisfaction rate was a little bit higher than for the last survey of April 2003.

The government?s popularity, as illustrated by the survey, may be surprising: its defeat at the by-election last December in Rivière-du-Rempart and the various discontented speeches against the government could have been indications that they would lose popularity. However, the survey clearly shows that the population was not as discontented as it seemed. More than half of those interviewed qualified the government?s results as ?positive?. This does not match the opinion of those usually in the forefront ? trade unions, media, political observers, etc. ? who sometimes give the impression that the whole population is dissatisfied.

These results neither astonish the government nor worry the opposition. The prime minister even asserts: ?We are even stronger than what the results point out.? The secretary general of the Mouvement Militant Mauricien (MMM), Ivan Collendavelloo, shows more satisfaction, ?I can only rejoice about the popularity of the MMM in the government.? He nevertheless adds that he is ?not surprised at all.? As far as the opposition is concerned, it is a very bad loser. It tries to question the methods used in order to prove that the survey is ?very far from reality.? The Labour party is referring, as expected, to its victory at the last by-election.

What the survey shows is that the alliance in power with Paul Bérenger as prime minister has kept the population?s support although the opposition was rising swiftly in the opinion poll. 43% of Mauritians showed a preference for the MSM-MMM-PMSD-Les Verts alliance against 23% for the Labour Party-PMXD-MR-MMSM alliance between 24th and 27th February. However, compared to the last survey in April 2003, the alliance in power had lost its lead over the opposition by 3 points.

46% of the citizens preferred Paul Bérenger as prime minister to Navin Ramgoolam with 29%. The PM kept the lead he had over Navin Ramgoolam in April 2003 and even won some 5 points compared to last year whereas the leader of the opposition won only one point. However, in the last survey, the latter was more popular than in April 2003. During this short period, 62% were satisfied with Navin Ramgoolam as leader of the opposition. Paul Bérenger however had some opposers in the North, where Navin Ramgoolam was well ahead (40% against 35%).

One of the most astonishing results may be the score obtained by the Mouvement Socialiste Mauricien (MSM). The latter had only 10% of the voting intentions against 19% in April 2003. Actually, the fight for the next elections will probably be between the MMM and Labour. It would thus be in the interest of the MSM to go to the next elections with its present ally. The retirement of Sir Aneerood Jugnauth as leader of the party and the lack of conviction of Pravind Jugnauth, the new leader, might explain this change.

Despite the good performance of the government, dissatisfaction with its results was going up. The rate of people believing these results were ?very negative? has gone from 10% to 12% and support for the government has also gone down by 3 points compared to last year. 34% of Mauritians were pessimistic regarding the future of the country, while this percentage reached some 29% only in April 2003.

Yet, there were still many people saying they were satisfied with the government?s actions. Actually, it looks legitimate to ask if Mauritians were not choosing the lesser of two evils. People might think that there is no decent alternative to the alliance in power as the high abstention rate in the survey also showed. The rate of non-voters and floating voters put together reached 34% with14% for the non voters and 19% for the floating voters.

The number of floating voters was more important as far as women were concerned. 23% were not sure yet. This figure could back up the present debate over women?s under-representation in politics: they do not seem concerned enough by this issue.

It looks legitimate to ask if Mauritians were not choosing the lesser of two evils. People might think that there is no decent alternative to the alliance in power