There is already an “electoral mood” throughout the country in spite of prime minister Paul Bérenger’s announcement that the government’s campaign will start only in mid-March. Every citizen has his/her own opinion on who the winners will be and everyone has a comment to make on the actions or reactions of some party member. This electoral atmosphere is even more electric among the politicians themselves. Rumours of dissatisfied members planning to cross the floor and criticisms on political opponents are rife these days…

Of course, the PM is used to castigating opposition MPs each time he has the opportunity. And his weekly press conferences give him the ideal platform for that. However, last Friday’s remarks seemed to bear other meanings a few months before the general elections.

He came back to the Voile d’Or incident, where fishermen demonstrated in front of tourists to express their fears about the environment, to say that Me Sinatambou, a Labour party official had played an important role in this case. He qualified the movement instigated by Me Sinatambou as “irresponsible and vile”- the more so since the Rs 35,000 proposed by Voile d’Or to each fisherman was enough to calm them down. Likewise, he stressed that the government is “bound” to go ahead with the South Eastern Highway project because of the commitment taken by the former government with the African Development Bank.

However, Paul Bérenger insisted that the electoral campaign would start only after the 12th of March celebrations. “It is only then that we will get to work on the list of candidates- the team that will stand in the next elections- and on our electoral programme.” The Mayday rally will thus be the first “big” event of this campaign. The general elections will be held some time between August and October and he made it clear that there will be no by-election in Constituency n° 3 to replace resigning MP Siddick Chady.

But, before the elections proper, the government will have to present the budget for 2005-2006. The acting PM and Finance minister, Pravind Jugnauth, met the press on Saturday on that issue. He announced that the budget speech will be delivered on Monday 28th of March. He insisted that this budget will not be an “electoral” one but that it will favour private investment, job creation, democratisation of the economy, social justice and the fight against poverty and exclusion.

Pre-budget negotiations will start in early February and the population has until the 15th of February to submit proposals. As they are linked with the budget, the yearly tripartite negotiations on salary compensation will start at the beginning of March. He stressed the need for employers and trade unions to be responsible and announced that he would chair the meetings as he did last year.

However, the coming months are going to be tough for the leader of the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM). While he will need all his energy to concentrate on a budget that will certainly have a strong influence on the way votes are cast, some members of his party are seething with discontent behind the scenes. They beg to disagree with some government moves and feel they have been left out of the big decisions.

With the approaching elections, this feeling seems more pronounced. Rumours are increasing on possible defections. “The Labour Party is making too many concessions to some renegades, MPs and ministers of the MMM-MSM alliance who know that they will obtain no tickets from their party,” declared Satcam Boolell, the honorary president of the Labour party, in a press interview some time ago. This seemed like a way of telling his party not to accept any defector.

It was obvious that Sir Satcam Boolell’s target was Anil Bachoo, the minister of Public infrastructure. The latter seems to have been at odds with the government for some time. But the main contention could be with his own party.

Minister Bachoo did not attend his party’s official dinner. Although he was “officially” sick, there are other signs indicating a problem despite the denials of both the PM and the DPM. The latter said there were many speculations on Anil Bachoo’s leaving the MSM but he insisted that relations were cordial within the MSM.

However, the very fact that the PM says that he has good relations with minister Bachoo may arouse suspicion. At his press conference, Paul Bérenger said he had met Anil Bachoo: “We reviewed the political situation as well as some of the projects of his ministry. The meeting was cordial and honest. As soon as I come back from China, we will talk again.”

On the other hand, MSM members say that Bachoo’s departure is only be a matter of timing depending on the political calendar and the date of the general elections. Some say that he will not leave the government before the Maha Shivaratree celebrations on 8th March. Whenever he goes, the minister might well take along with him other discontented MSM members.

So the battle of nerves is on... On the one hand, the government may try to keep its members together for the next elections – the more so as Anil Bachoo is quite a bigwig in the MSM and has some strong support in rural areas. The PM seems to have already started his efforts in this direction.

On the other hand, Ramgoolam’s Labour Party seems keen to welcome such disappointed members. At least some of them are: one of its most important members, Arvin Boolell, said: “The party is open to anyone if the newcomers are ready to adopt its philosophy.”

“Pravind Jugnauth will present his budget on Monday 28th March. He insisted that his budget will not be an “electoral” one but that it will favour private investment, job creation, social justice and the fight against poverty and exclusion.”