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Matches made in polls
Navin Ramgoolam is worth 31%, Paul Bérenger, 28% and Pravind Jugnauth, 8%. Some simple mathematics shows that 31+28=59, that 28+8=36 and that 36 is stronger than 31. Alternatively, 31+8=39 and 39 wins over 31.
Confused ? OK, those figures were published in yesterday?s issue of Business Magazine and come from the latest political survey conducted by Sofres. Besides revealing the fact that 47% of the people interviewed in August are happy with the way the country is being run, that Navin Ramgoolam is the people?s favourite Prime minister, that people have faith in the economic policy of government and the labour party is the most popular political party of the country as at now, the survey asks questions about preferred coalitions, political figures and for whom people will vote if elections were held ?next Sunday?.
Of course it doesn?t go into the reasons behind the political strength of Ramgoolam at more than midway through his mandate ? it probably has to do with the way he surfs smoothly through troubled waters. But the fact of the matter remains that Ramgoolam- probably more than his Labour party ? remains popular. His only weakness at this point in time ? and this has also been a constant ? is the low opinion that people of the General Population have of him. And this will probably weigh quite a lot in the next general elections and the political configurations that will come into place as we near 2010.
28% of the people interviewed said they felt ?close? to the Labour party while 25% of them said they felt close to the MMM and 11% of the people said their preferred political party was the MSM.
These results shows that the Labour party has gained four points since the last survey conducted in March, the MMM has gained five points and the MSM has gained 4 points. More or less the same percentage of people would vote for the respective parties if elections were held ?next Sunday?.
But seeing that our political leaders love coalitions, they might be interested to know the following ? if general elections were theoretically held next Sunday and there was a coalition between the MMM and the MSM, 41% of the people interviewed said they would vote for such a coalition against 29% that would vote for the Social Alliance as it is with the Labour party as the main party. And 49% of the people interviewed would actually like for such an arrangement to take place between the MMM and the MSM. 23% of the people interviewed said they wouldn?t like this to happen.
And in case there were a coalition between the Labour party and the MSM, 37% of the people interviewed said they would vote for such a coalition and 30% said they would vote for the MMM. But only 32% of the people would like this to happen and 37% would prefer that such an alliance didn?t happen.
Sterile Figures</B>
An alliance between the Labour party and the MMM would definitely beat the MSM but surprisingly ? or not that surprisingly ? most people wouldn?t like this to happen ? 21% of people would like this to happen against 49% who would rather it didn?t.
Behind these sterile figures, the preoccupations of most Mauritius emerge and issues of race, religion are found to be lurking behind every figure. As one goes through the figures, it appears that although Hindus are generally and increasingly happy with Navin Ramgoolam?s performance as Prime minister (62%) and (despite what some would like to believe) Muslims trust him more (59%), Ramgoolam doesn?t do too well among what is known as the General Population group. 59% of them say they are unhappy with Ramgoolam?s performance. This said, Ramgoolam?s image has improved in that group; the figures in March were 70% of interviewees said they weren?t happy with his performance.
Not surprisingly, 78% of people from the General Population say they are ?happy? with Paul Bérenger, against 69% of Hindus and 67% of Muslims.
So what does this say and how will political leaders react to this survey? As at now, unofficial reports say that there are attempts to engage in a rapprochement between the MMM and the MSM. Ramgoolam?s decision to renew Sir Anerood Jugnauth?s mandate as President of the Republic is thought to be a move to thwart that rapprochement.
Will it work?
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