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17 avril 2007, 20:00

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lexpress.mu | Toute l'actualité de l'île Maurice en temps réel.

Sterling hurdled the psychological $ 2 barrier to hit a 15-year high against the greenback yesterday as UK’s inflation surpassed 3 percent. This was last seen since Britain exited the pre-euro Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992. The pound was unleashed from the $ 2 barrier when data showed that consumer prices gathered speed and reached 3.1 percent for the month of March, its highest since records were kept. This boosted expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England in May to 5.5 percent.

The whole of last week trading sessions saw the pound creeping up, gathering momentum, fuelled by batches of robust data and Sterling supported news. Retail sales growth rose to its strongest pace in nearly a year. According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, British house price inflation picked up against expectation in March after four months of easing.

<B>The pound, a good source of return </B>

In addition, news in the Financial Times stated that UK’s Treasury would be issuing a paper to discuss the option of allowing UK-based firms to repatriate their foreign profits tax-free into Britain. All these pushed the pound higher encouraging investors to consider the pound as a source of return especially when the market was anticipating a rate rise in May.

Against the Mauritian rupee, the Sterling was trading at MUR 64.84 yesterday as compared to MUR 64.45 a week earlier.

Poor dollar sentiments prevailed through last week trading sessions due mostly to bullish euro zone interest rates outlook. On the other hand, investors continued to nag the US currency when they noticed that the Federal Reserve Bank kept the US interest rates unchanged but left out the phrase that should point out to further monetary policy tightening.

Dollar weakness further endorsed</B>

The dollar got a brief moment of respite when monetary policy minutes actually showed that policy members spotted the dangers of inflation and advocated increasing interest rates at the expense of growth.

However, the dollar downtrend continued when expectations were rising that interest rates in the euro zone would keep going up.

The dollar decline precipitated when the market interpreted comments from Jean Claude Trichet as meaning that the European Central Bank was likely to hike its benchmark interest rate in June.

Meanwhile, focus had changed as the Group of Seven Finance ministers were meeting with the IMF and the World Bank, fuelling expectations among currency traders that the group would endorse further dollar weakness to tackle wide trade imbalances between countries.

With a lot of speculation going on, currency trading recorded some wild volatility. The euro gained when ECB official, Yves Mersch, stated that the euro zone would be able to sustain a hard landing in the US economy. Toward the end of the week, a batch of weak data refueled concerns about the health of the US economy and pushed the dollar lower.

Against the Mauritian rupee, the dollar was trading at MUR 32.569 yesterday compared to MUR 32.751 a week earlier.

The yen was downtrodden throughout most of last week as investors resumed selling yen to invest in higher-yielding assets. Against all expectations, the G7 did not single out the Japanese currency’s weakness and in a way gave the green lights for carry trades.

According to analysts, yen selling would persists until market players came to the realization that the Japanese economy was getting stronger relative to the uncertain US economy.

Against the Mauritian rupee, the yen was trading at MUR 27.23 as compared to 27.52 same as a week earlier.

Major data/events this week:</B>

<B>Wednesday 18 April :</B>US Mortgage indx, MBA

Thursday 19April :</B>US Jobless

Friday 20 April :</B>US PPI

Monday 23 April :</B>

<B>Tuesday 24 April :</B>US Redbook

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