For a world hoping democracy will provide the stability nuclear-armed Pakistan needs to save it from Islamist militants and chaos, the first 100 days of the new civilian government haven?t been very reassuring. The transition, after eight years of military-led rule under President Pervez Musharraf, an important US ally in its war on terrorism, is happening at the worst of times.

Asif Ali Zardari is struggling to fill the void left by the assassination in December of his wife, the charismatic two-time prime minister Benazir Bhutto, whose party won the election in February and took the reins of government on March 29. There are fears within their Pakistan People?s Party (PPP) that Zardari has chosen a losing path in a three-way power struggle with Musharraf and old rival Nawaz Sharif, the Prime Minister Musharraf overthrew.

Although Musharraf has so far resisted calls for his resignation, he could quit in coming months, just as the Bush presidency that has helped prop him up draws to a close. Once that happens, most analysts reckon the last vestiges of a post-election alliance between Zardari and Sharif will disappear and Pakistan will enter a fresh phase of instability.

In a miserable state

Militants have extended influence over large swathes of the northwest, alarming Western allies suffering rising casualty rates in Afghanistan due to the flow of fighters from Pakistan. The West is also uneasy with the new government seeking peace deals with militants, due to fears al Qaeda is plotting attacks in Europe and North America from sanctuaries in Pakistan.

The politicians will have to weigh risks of provoking another wave of suicide attacks by militants whose bombers killed hundreds of people across Pakistan after the army stormed Islamabad?s Red Mosque to crush an armed movement last July. Urgent action is also needed to steer Pakistan?s fast growing economy away from the rocks, and the government is seeking to borrow billions from allies and multilateral lenders.

Inflation is running at over 20 percent, the rupee is at all-time lows, currency reserves are rapidly dwindling, and the stock market is in intensive care with a ban on short selling and a daily limit set to allow it to fall no more than 1 percent. Electricity cuts of several hours a day are the norm across Pakistan, due to the failure to build new power plants.

Looming over everything else is a constitutional crisis resulting from Musharraf?s use of emergency powers last November to purge the Supreme Court of judges who might have ruled illegal his re-election by a pliant outgoing parliament in October.

The defeat of Musharraf?s allies in February?s election left him vulnerable to attack from the new parliament, but none came. Instead cracks occurred in the coalition. Sharif pulled his party out, because Zardari broke a promise to swiftly reinstate judges who could have provided a short-cut to ousting Musharraf.

By backtracking, Zardari squandered goodwill, lost trust, and left people guessing his intentions. Zardari hasn?t stood for election and remains outside the orbit of the parliament. He guides his nominee Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani from behind the scenes, and they are often accused of leaving coalition partners in the dark.

Talat Masood, a retired general turned analyst, believes Zardari will fail to win people?s support for the war on terrorism unless he keeps the religiously conservative Sharif on board to sell the policy to the people of Punjab, Pakistan?s richest and most populous province.

Zardari has tried to buy time by proposing a constitutional package that will reduce Musharraf to a figurehead role. Critics have accused Zardari of letting drift set in when the government should be in overdrive to tackle the crises. Even dictators have struggled to manage Pakistan, as the Muslim nation reeled from crisis to crisis since its formation out of India?s partition in 1947.

Simon CAMERON-MOORE