Publicité

Sweet and sour dressing for the yen

13 février 2007, 20:00

Par

Partager cet article

Facebook X WhatsApp

lexpress.mu | Toute l'actualité de l'île Maurice en temps réel.

The Japanese currency was in the limelight throughout the week, as speculations ran rampant that the Group of Seven Finance ministers might take a tough stance on the Japanese currency’s weakness at their weekend meeting.

European policy-makers had been calling for the G7 to tackle the yen weakness because it made European exports comparatively more expensive in Japan while Japanese exports became cheaper in Europe. However, both the Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and the US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson stated that the yen weakness would not be a topic of discussion as the Japanese currency was only a reflection of economic fundamentals. According to many analysts, current interest rates fundamentals dictated a continuum in the carry trades.

As investors kept on looking for higher yield, they would sell the yen and other low-yield currencies and used the proceeds to buy high-yielding currencies in the popular “carry trade’’. Since the environment for carry trades would continue to boom, market players could expect the yen weakness to continue over the next couple of months. Against the Mauritian rupee, the yen was trading at MUR 28.52 same as a week earlier.

The dollar was subjected to the ebb and flow of wild speculations generated by the meeting of the Group of Seven Finance ministers. As a result, market players were positioning themselves while gathering clues to guess the future path of the US currency.

Many traders were analyzing carefully the aftermath of the G7 meeting, picking out through the remains wondering whether any relevant comments were made on the foreign exchange market.

For the most part of the week, the US currency remained muted as the markets were focusing on the yen. Consequently, US business productivity data for the fourth quarter and the rise in non-farm payroll had little or no impact on the Forex market.

The sterling on a strong note</B>

On the other hand, the euro got a temporary boost when the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a rise in benchmark interest rates in the euro zone in March. The European currency became bullish despite the ECB left borrowing rates unchanged at 3.5 percent. This was mainly due to the hawkish statement from the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet who included the phrase “strong vigilance’’ to highlight how the central bank planned to combat inflationary pressures.

The expectation was thus created that the ECB might be hiking up the rates in the second half of the year even after the removal of monetary accommodative was over. Against the Mauritian rupee, the dollar was trading at MUR 33.61 yesterday compared to MUR 33.71 a week earlier.

Sterling started the week on a strong note after strong British retail sales data and possible M&A inflows fuelled expectation for higher rates. The British Retail Consortium stated that British data for January showed accelerated sales since July. Despite the fact that there were no additional sizeable cash-based corporate takeovers, news hit the market that Deutsche Telekon might be interested in bidding for Cable & wireless. Immediately the pound rose, but towards the end of the week a batch of mixed data made the pound lost its shine. UK industrial output unexpectedly contracted in December as mild weather and increased imports dented domestic gas production. In addition, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent after surprise 25 basis points last month. Britain’s goods trade gap expanded more than expected to 7.142 billion pounds in December from 6.871 billion pounds in November. Against the Mauritian rupee, the Sterling was trading at MUR 66.04 yesterday as compared to MUR 66.75 a week earlier.

<B>Major data/events this week</B>

<B>Wednesday 14 Feb</B> Mortgage Indx,

EZ Cons Confidence

Thursday 15 Feb</B>

US Jobless

Friday 16 Feb</B>

US PPI

Monday 19 Feb </B> US Fed budget

Tuesday 20 Feb </B> JP BoJ meeting

Vassan CALEEMOOTOO</B> <I>Contributed by HSBC</I>

Publicité