SADDAM. The recent death of Saddam Hussein calls for a review of the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) situation in the world. Except for his use of chemical warfare against the Iranians and the Kurds, he did not have any WMD. The possession of WMDs, as we all know, was the official reason given for the invasion of Iraq and indirectly for his subsequent execution.

Had Hitler got the nuclear weapon in 1945, before the Americans, the face of the world might have changed. Had Saddam possessed nuclear weapons? or for that matter had Al Qaida, Hamas, the Basques, Chechnyans, Elam and dozen other separatist groups. There is clearly an overriding justification for non-proliferation and disarmament!

So, what are WMDs and who are those who possess them?

Besides chemical and bacteriological weapons, the main WMDs are nuclear or atomic bombs. The world is not so aware of who has chemical and biological weapons since these (now strictly banned) are lab-tested and can be kept secret. Nuclear bombs, on the other hand, are tested in nature and are therefore, because of the shock waves generated and the spread of deadly radioactivity, detectable by all.

In order of acquisition are, first the USA in 1945, then USSR in 49, UK in 52, France in 1960, followed by China in 1964. Then there was a big gap of 10 years in proliferation, until the Indian bomb in 1974, Israel?s in 1979 and Pakistan?s in 1998, without forgetting the North Korean attempt in 2006.

Declared nuclear weapons stocks, 2006

Most analysts recognise three distinct groups, namely:

Those who possess huge stockpiles, enough to destroy our planet several times over: USA (5,000 - 9,000 warheads) and Russia (5,000 - 16,000 warheads);

Smaller stockpiles such as those of France (350), UK (200), China (130), India (100), Pakistan (80) and Israel (70 - 200, exact figure unknown);

Others, such as the one tested by North Korea.

From the purely military point of view, the strength of a nuclear arsenal is also measured by the missile and aircraft delivery systems.

Nuclear weapons in other states

Three countries have special significance in this respect. One is Japan, the only country to have been bombed by an atomic weapon (Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945), then the USA, the only country to have actually used a form of WMD. The third is South Africa, which produced six nuclear weapons in the 1980s, but disassembled them in the early 1990s, and thus is the only nation known to have willingly given up its membership to the nuclear ?CLUB?. A model for the world! Other cases follow.

Belarus had warhead missiles stationed in their territory after the USSR collapsed in 1991- these were all transferred to Russia by 1996 after which Belarus signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT); similarly, Kazakhstan inherited 1,400 nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union and transferred them all to Russia by 1995; Ukraine inherited about 5,000 nuclear weapons when it became independent from the USSR in 1991, making its nuclear arsenal the third largest in the world; by 1996, Ukraine had voluntarily transferred them to Russia.

Argentina and Brazil have had nuclear research programmes as far back as 1950/60 for developing and controlling nuclear energy; Australia provided uranium, land for weapon tests at Woomera and scientific and engineering expertise. However, Australia?s nuclear ambitions were abandoned by the 1960s.

Egypt had a nuclear weapon research programme from 1954 to 1967 and has the scientific and technological ability to develop a nuclear bomb. However, Egypt did not pursue that quest (like its neighbours Israel and Iran do) and has signed the NNPT.

Germany during World War II under Hitler researched possibilities to develop a nuclear weapon, but did not succeed. Today Germany is strongly against WMDs.

Iraq has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but had a nuclear weapon research programme in the 1970s and 1980s. In 1981, Iraqi nuclear reactors were destroyed by Israel. In 1996, the UN inspectors (under Hans Blix) reported that Iraq had dismantled all its nuclear capabilities. In 2003, the United States and others invaded Iraq based on intelligence indicating that it possessed weapons prohibited by the UN Security Council. Because of its refusal to fully cooperate with UN inspections, Iraq was strongly suspected of having some form of nuclear program. However, in 2004, the Duelfer Report concluded Iraq?s nuclear programme was actually terminated in the 1990s, thereby invalidating the main reason (possession of WMDs) put forward for the present invasion of Iraq.

Japan conducted research into nuclear weapons during World War II , with little results. Japan signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and is strongly opposed to WMDs, although Japan has the technological capabilities to easily develop nuclear weapons in a short time.

Libya dabbled with the nuclear but, in 2003, announced its intention to end its nuclear programme and dismantle all existing weapons of mass destruction to be verified by unconditional inspections; similarly; South Korea began a nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, which was believed abandoned after signing NNPT in 1975, but in 2004, South Korea disclosed to the IAEA that its scientists had extracted plutonium in 1982 and enriched uranium in 2000 (both utilisable to make WMD); in 1950/1960, Sweden feeling threatened by the USSR, developed a substantial research programme in weapons design and manufacture. Later, Sweden decided not to pursue it and signed the NNPT; Taiwan conducted a secret nuclear weapons research programme from 1964 to 1988 when it was stopped as a result of US pressure.

Our situation. We, in Mauritius, a peace-loving people, will surely never make or use WMDs, nor indeed are we, tiny Mauritius, in any position to do so! Thank God, for there have been at least three government ministers (from 1968 to 2006) whom, I for one, would not trust with WMDs in their hands!

Thus, we can only be affected by WMDs, in the event of conflict where we are somehow involved, again an unlikely scenario. A powerful hydrogen bomb, exploded over Curepipe, could destroy all of Mauritius and all Mauritians, while making the island uninhabitable for 10,000 years! (Plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24,110 years). No, we do not want to contemplate such a possibility. Except that such bombs, with their delivery aircrafts (B-52s) are likely to be present (in the ?safe? hands of the US government) on our soil, in Diego. Some careful diplomacy is needed here!

Dr. Michael ATCHIA [email protected]