Elections in the next few weeks will bring new faces and new hope to a clutch of African countries, but many of the poor, war-damaged continent’s nascent democracies face major hurdles in the coming year. Niger, Ghana, Namibia and Mozambique all hold elections over the next month – the latter two picking new presidents after their long-time leaders pledged to stand aside.

The peaceful exit of Namibia’s Sam Nujoma, who led a 30-year guerrilla campaign before independence from South Africa in 1990, and Mozambique’s Joachim Chissano, ushered in by his predecessor’s assassination at the height of a civil war, could be the dawn of a new political era in both countries.

“Progress has been made,” said Richard Klein of the US-based National Democratic Institute for International Affairs. “While there are still problems, and notable exceptions, more and more Africans are able to routinely exercise their right to vote.” Nujoma, 75, who was allowed to stand for a third term on a technicality five years ago, has handed the mantle to Hifikepunye Pohamba, a fellow SWAPO founder only a few years his junior and the chosen candidate of Nujoma’s ruling party in the November 15-16 elections.

But Nujoma is staying on as party leader, which many take to mean he will not simply retire to concentrate on farming as he told Reuters earlier this year he would like to do. “A Pohamba presidency may be seen as a weak one with Nujoma as the real power behind the throne. This could still create tensions as other formations seek to assert themselves, especially the cabinet,” said Graham Hopwood of the Institute for Public Policy Research in Namibia.

Under Mozambique’s constitution, Chissano, 68, could stand again but has chosen to step aside. His ruling Frelimo party is fielding wealthy businessman Armando Guebuza in the Dec. 1-2 poll in the country whose civil war ended 12 years ago. Guebuza faces a serious challenge from Afonso Dhlakama of the main Renamo opposition, which has accused Frelimo activists of plotting to rig the election and of intimidating opponents.

Litany of failed states

Power is finely balanced, with Frelimo holding 133 seats in the outgoing Parliament to Renamo’s 127, and with most Mozambicans still dirt poor despite rapid economic growth, the election is likely to be hard-fought and very tight. Niger’s Mamadou Tandja and Ghana’s John Kufuor, elected in peaceful polls in 1999 and 2000 respectively, are expected to be re-elected after relatively trouble-free first mandates in which both have pleased voters by spending cash on programmes to improve sanitation, access to health and education.

But the surprise arrests of a number of people on suspicion of trying to destabilise Ghana ahead of Dec. 7 election sits uneasily with its reputation as a bulwark of stability in West Africa, especially as neighbouring Ivory Coast slips back towards war. Voters in Niger go to the polls for first round presidential elections on November 16. They were to have voted on November 13 but the poll was delayed because of Ramadan.

The New Year brings more uncertainty for some of Africa’s least functional states slated to hold elections. Several may simply postpone due to continuing unrest or lack of facilities. Somalia’s breakaway enclave of Somaliland, Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia and Ivory Coast are all due to hold presidential or parliamentary polls in the next 12 months. The roll-call reads more like a litany of failing or failed states than aspirant democracies. Relatively stable Ethiopia and Tanzania, with parliamentary polls, do little to leaven the mix.

“What we are seeing here is immense pressure being placed on countries to hold elections, even if the situation isn’t perfect,” said Jan van Eck, a researcher with South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies who has spent much of the last decade in Burundi and elsewhere in Africa’s Great Lakes region.

Burundi has already missed an Oct. 31 deadline for elections to end more than a decade of devastating ethnic war, and has slated polls for April. “There is still a deep absence of consensus about the future,” van Eck said. “Nobody believes that having an election is going to herald in an era of democracy as such, but it can herald the beginning of a process.”

Next door, the giant Democratic Republic of Congo has an even greater task organising polls due in July. Patrick Smith of London-based newsletter Africa Confidential said the Congo poll’s estimated $300 million price tag raised questions for Africa’s third-biggest country. “Is this a good use of resources when there is no guarantee, or even probability, that the elections are going to be free and fair?” he said.

Alistair THOMSON</B>