For years, Mauritius has spoken of the Blue Economy in the language of promise. The ocean was meant to become the island’s new sugarcane field: a strategic frontier capable of compensating for the structural limits of land, demography and traditional industries. The narrative was seductive. A country of 1.3m people sitting on an Exclusive Economic Zone of roughly 2.3m square kilometres naturally saw in the sea the possibility of scale. Yet strategy begins where slogans end.

A decade ago, l’express published the series Blue Economy: Not So Blue, warning against confusing maritime aspiration with maritime capability. Those warnings appear increasingly prescient today. Since then, the global ocean economy has expanded dramatically. Estimates value it at around $2.5trn, with projections approaching $4trn within the next decade. Offshore renewable energy, marine biotechnology, sustainable aquaculture and maritime logistics are becoming central to global growth. Yet the world surrounding Mauritius has simultaneously become more unstable.

The Indian Ocean is no longer merely a trade corridor. It is increasingly a theatre of geopolitical rivalry. America, China, India, France and Britain all project influence across its waters. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and instability in the Red Sea have reminded governments that maritime insecurity rapidly translates into economic insecurity. A disruption thousands of kilometres away can affect shipping costs, fuel prices, insurance premiums and food inflation in Port-Louis within days.

This changes the meaning of the Blue Economy entirely. Mauritius can no longer discuss marine development solely through tourism, fisheries or investment promotion. Maritime strategy is now inseparable from national resilience. The distinction between economic policy and security policy is beginning to blur.

To its credit, the government increasingly appears aware of this reality. The Prime Minister’s call at the Africa Forward Summit for a coalition of ocean states reflects an important geopolitical evolution: small island developing states are beginning to recognise their collective maritime leverage. Likewise, the authorities’ emphasis on green bunkering, aquaculture, marine biotechnology and sustainable fisheries suggests that Mauritius no longer views the ocean merely as a peripheral economic sector. But ambition alone does not produce maritime power.

The country’s greatest vulnerability remains institutional fragmentation. Responsibilities for ports, fisheries, coastguard surveillance, environmental protection, maritime diplomacy and ocean governance remain dispersed across agencies operating too often in silos. Mauritius frequently speaks of becoming a “Big Ocean State”; administratively, however, it still behaves largely like a small land-based bureaucracy.

That matters because the risks are multiplying. Illegal fishing, narcotics trafficking, cyber threats to port infrastructure, climate shocks and chronic under-surveillance of the Exclusive Economic Zone all expose the limits of state capacity. The Wakashio disaster demonstrated brutally that maritime emergencies are not theoretical scenarios. They are national crises capable of damaging ecosystems, tourism and investor confidence simultaneously.

The Blue Economy therefore requires something more demanding than enthusiasm: strategic discipline.

Mauritius urgently needs a comprehensive National Maritime Risk Assessment integrating climate risk, maritime security, cyber vulnerabilities, fisheries sustainability and supply-chain resilience into a single framework. The country also requires stronger institutional coordination. A permanent National Maritime Strategy Unit operating at the highest level of government could improve cooperation between ministries, scientific institutions, intelligence services and regional partners.

At the same time, Mauritius must invest far more aggressively in maritime intelligence and scientific capability. Oceanographic research, satellite monitoring, digital port systems and marine data collection are no longer luxuries. In the modern ocean economy, information itself is strategic capital.

Above all, Mauritius must resist the temptation to romanticise the ocean.

The sea is neither an automatic salvation nor an ideological abstraction. It is an unforgiving strategic space where opportunity and vulnerability coexist permanently. Countries that succeed in the Blue Economy will not necessarily be those with the largest maritime zones, but those most capable of combining governance, science, security and long-term planning.

Mauritius still possesses major advantages: geographic positioning, relative political stability, diplomatic credibility and access to one of the world’s most dynamic maritime corridors. But the coming years will determine whether the country evolves into a resilient ocean state – or remains merely an island speaking the language of maritime ambition without fully mastering its realities.