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First-time political participants key in Iowa

2 janvier 2008, 20:00

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Democratic front-runners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, locked in battle in the first state contest on the road to the US presidential nomination, are eyeing first-time caucus participants in Iowa as a key to victory.

The Clinton campaign is appealing to women attending their first political nominating caucus, set for today in Iowa, while the Obama campaign seeks new young voters.

A win in Iowa would provide momentum for candidates seeking to become the Republican and Democratic nominees in the November 2008 election to replace President George W. Bush.

?It?s a smart angle by both of those campaigns,? said Tracy Osborn, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa. ?Barack Obama could bring in minority voters and younger voters and Hillary Clinton is likely to bring in women voters and typically those are groups that don?t participate in a caucus.?

Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady, leads Iowa?s Democratic field with 30 %, just ahead of Illinois Senator Obama and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, who each polled 26 percent in a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday.

Hoping to coax young people to turn out for the longstanding political event mostly frequented by older, established party faithful, the Obama campaign has tried different ways such as the online Facebook network to reach high school students who will be old enough to vote in November.

?Can I shake your hand? That way I can tell everybody,? Ashley Hazen, 17, asked Obama as he made his way through George?s Pizza and Steakhouse in Fairfield, Iowa, this week.

?It?s my first caucus,? said Hazen, who will be 18 by the November general election. ?I?m actually going to caucus for him. He?s a down-to-earth, good family man and is what we need for the United States.?

With an eye to women, Clinton this week again reminded voters she is a mother and a daughter and advocating support for people who care for others, such as elderly parents or a disabled spouse.

?Our natural universe of potential caucus-goers has been women,? said Mark Daley, Clinton?s Iowa communications director.

He said the campaign has identified women in each of the state?s 1,784 political precincts who vote in general elections but have not participated in a caucus. Those women were targeted with direct mail, telephone calls and online advertising.

One woman at a campaign event in Keokuk on Monday said she plans to participate in her first caucus and back Clinton but had some reservations.

?I?m pretty nervous,? said Annie Pennington, 33. ?You watch it on TV but this is the real thing.?

In Iowa, the start of the nominating process can be time-consuming as voters gather and typically discuss candidates and issues before making their choices.

A rise in first-time attendees could tip the scales dramatically, given the low numbers of people who participate. In 2004, 124,000 people took part in Iowa?s Democratic caucus.

But it?s tough getting first-timers to show up. In 2004, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean headed into Iowa as the Democratic favorite but failed to draw his young supporters to the voting process and finished a disappointing third place.

Nonetheless, gambling on first-timers is a risk worth taking in a race this close, Osborn said.

?The real risk would be if they get them out to the caucus and they caucus for someone else,? she said.

Ellen WULFHORST </B>

WHAT IS A CAUCUS? WHO TAKES PART? WHY IS IT POLITICALLY SIGNIFICANT?

What is a caucus?

A party meeting at the precinct level at which citizens express their candidate preferences and pick delegates to their county conventions. It?s the lowest level of party politics: the real grass roots. These meetings, held in each of the state?s nearly 1,800 precincts, typically draw anywhere from a handful of people in rural areas to hundreds in suburban areas.

Who takes part?

Anyone who is old enough to vote in the November general election and is a member of the party is eligible, but traditionally only a small number of Iowans show up. This year, 120,000 to 150,000 people are expected to vote in the Democratic caucuses, while 80,000 to 90,000 are likely to participate in the GOP contest.

Why is it politically significant?

Persuading a group of average citizens to show up in support of a candidate is considered a sign of organizational strength. Each candidate courts politicians and activists at the state and local level in hopes of getting strong numbers of supporters to show up and participate. At the same time, the caucus system allows candidates to develop and hone their message before relatively small groups.

What happens at a caucus?

Participants, led by a chairman or chairwoman, indicate their preferences for their party?s presidential nomination, pick delegates to their county conventions and discuss party business, including party platforms.

What happens next?

Delegates chosen at the caucuses go to the county convention later in the year. There, the field is winnowed and delegates are chosen for the district convention. This happens again at district meetings and again at the state convention, where delegates are named to attend the party?s national convention.

Why are the numbers different?

The Republicans essentially hold a straw poll ? a head count ? at their precinct caucuses, reporting real numbers. One head, one vote.

The Democrats do not report straight numbers, but use a mathematical formula to determine support for a presidential candidate in percentages. A candidate must have the support of 15 percent of those present at any meeting, precinct caucuses through the state convention, to remain «viable.» This is meant to ensure greater consistency throughout the process.

Will there be exit polls in Iowa?

Yes. The Associated Press and television networks will survey voters as they enter the caucus sites. Those surveys will help readers understand what issues and qualities motivated Iowans to vote for a specific candidate.

How did the Iowa caucuses get started?

A commission appointed after the riots disrupted the 1968 Democratic National Convention recommended proportionate representation and affirmative action. Iowa Democrats decided to use new rules in 1972, adopting a regulation that there must be a month between events: the caucuses, county, district, state and national conventions.

Source : The Seattle Times

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