<B>By Nicholas RAINER</B>

Fay, Hanna, Gustav and Ike. You could be forgiven for thinking that these names belong to the members a pop foursome. They are, in fact, the names of the four hurricanes that have been holding large swathes of the Caribbean hostage for the past two weeks. A trend seems to be emerging and it is one that should not be taken lightly, especially not by a cyclone-prone island like Mauritius.

We will soon be entering cyclone season. The island has been fortunate enough to have been spared a storm of undue violence in recent times. To expect this lucky streak to last however, would be highly perilous. The Caribbean might seem like a world away, which indeed it is. Yet mega-storm phenomena have been intensifying closer to home too. Four months ago, Cyclone Nargis ravaged the south of Myanmar, claiming over a 100 000 victims in the process.

Last week, ?Nature?, a leading scientific journal, published an article simply titled ?Hurricanes are getting fiercer?. ?As this year?s Atlantic hurricane season becomes even more violent, scientists have come up with the firmest evidence so far that global warming will significantly increase the intensity of the most extreme storms worldwide. One of the most contentious issues in the climate change debate has been whether the strength, number and duration of tropical will increase in a warmer world. Basic physics and modeling studies do suggest that tropical storms will become more intense, because warmer oceans provide more energy that can be converted into cyclone wind.?

There?s not much a Small island developing state (SIDS) like Mauritius can do in the face of such ferocity. It should however hone its early warning systems and contingency plans down to the smallest details. Despite our long history of dealing with cyclones and their aftermaths, there is a definite need for renewed vigilance and planning. If a city like New Orleans can be savaged by a hurricane, albeit one of exceptional violence, then just imagine what a preternaturally powerful cyclone could do to a SIDS. Doubtless, the authorities here would act with far more stealth and efficacy than the US government did in the wake of Katrina. The disaster was almost overshadowed by the startling ineptitude and criminal negligence demonstrated by the federal government while thousands of the country?s citizens were left to their own devices in the direst of circumstances.

Still not convinced? ?The US National Weather Service?s Climate Prediction Centre predicts that 14 to 18 named storms and 3 to 6 major hurricanes will form this season. An average season has 11 named storms and 2 major hurricanes?, the article in ?Nature? concludes.

By giving names to cyclones and hurricanes, we almost seem to be trying to humanize them. Yet there is nothing remotely affable in the wrath with which they destroy lives and infrastructure. The only upshot of such catastrophes is that they create a sense of solidarity that is all too often sublimated during normal times. Preparing people to deal with natural disasters is all very well and good. Yet even this approach has its limits. Sooner or later we?ll have to tackle the root causes of climate change. You can start by having one meat-free day every week.