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Elections delay most likely

30 décembre 2007, 20:00

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Bhutto?s assassination in a suicide attack on Thursday has stoked violence and thrown into doubt the January 8 election, deepening the crisis in the important US ally against terrorism as it struggles to emerge from military rule.

?It seems more than likely that elections will be delayed?, Tariq Azim Khan, a senior official of the Pakistan Muslim League party, told Reuters. The party backs President Pervez Musharraf and ruled until a caretaker government was set up last month. Khan said he expected a six to eight week postponement.

Anger against President Pervez Musharraf burns strongly among Bhutto supporters and since her death sporadic violence has erupted, boosting fears about nuclear-armed Pakistan?s stability.

Pakistan?s stocks are expected to tumble to-day following the political turmoil and violence, which threaten to scare off foreign investors and damage the economy. Karachi, Pakistan?s biggest city, financial capital and main port, has been paralyzed by a spasm of street violence. Shops have been shuttered, petrol stations closed and railways attacked by angry mobs, bringing transport to a standstill.

Bhutto?s Pakistan People?s Party has dismissed the government statement that al Qaeda killed her, saying Musharraf?s embattled administration was trying to cover up its failure to protect her. Without the charismatic Bhutto, 54, whose family dynasty?s history is intertwined with Pakistan?s, her party is in disarray.

Her 19-year-old son, Bilawal, is to read her will yesterday but even if it names him as her political successor, the Oxford law student is seen as too young to immediately lead, and her husband Asif Ali Zardari would likely be the de facto chief. Otherwise the choice of a successor most likely lies between Zardari, and Bhutto?s top aide, Makhdoom Amin Fahim.

So far the government has not announced any decision to call off or postpone the vote, but the Election Commission said it was planning an emergency meeting to-day. Greg Turner, 50, an account manager at Siemens Pakistan, told Reuters yesterday on his way to church. ?I think it?s crucial elections are held. They are essential for democracy itself and the integrity of Pakistan. But a delay is inevitable?, said Turner, among the two percent of Pakistanis who are Christian in the overwhelmingly Islamic nation.

Although President George W. Bush has urged Pakistanis to hold the vote, a White House spokesman said it was up to Pakistan?s authorities to determine the timing. Washington had encouraged Bhutto, relatively liberal by Pakistan?s standards and an opponent of Islamic militancy.

Her death wrecked US hopes of a power-sharing deal between her and Musharraf, who took power in a military coup in 1999 but left the army last month to become a civilian president. Many PPP leaders are from Bhutto?s land-owning feudal class, yet the party has a big following among the poor.

?Ludicrous? death theory?

A close aide who prepared Bhutto?s body for burial dismissed as ?ludicrous? a government theory she died after hitting her head on a sunroof during the suicide attack. A party spokesman said she was shot in the head. A Pakistani television channel broadcast yesterday grainy still pictures of what it said appeared to be two men who attacked and killed Bhutto, one firing a pistol.

Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Iqbal Cheema said the government?s version, backed by a doctor who treated Bhutto, was based on a medical report and other evidence collected from the scene of the attack.

The PPP has said the government must also show hard evidence al Qaeda is to blame. The accused al Qaeda-linked militants have denied any role, although others issued threats against Bhutto when she returned in October. A suicide attack on her motorcade then killed at least 139 people.

Although early reports yesterday suggested the country was relatively quiet after the previous days? violence, two suspected suicide bombers were killed in central Punjab province when the devices they carried exploded prematurely in an apparent botched attack on a former minister, police said.

A promising investment story less than a year ago, Pakistan is now gripped by fears of capital flight if security worsens. ?If the situation prolongs, there will be capital outflows and we will probably see (the) Dubai market doing well because there is money flowing from Pakistan?, said Shoaib Memon, chief executive of Al Falah Securities, owned by the Abu Dhai Group, one of the largest foreign investors in Pakistan.

Some Pakistanis would like to leave the country as well. In Karachi yesterday, hotel assistant manager Khan said: ?Every six months there?s a problem here. Most Pakistanis would like to work outside the country. There are blasts, crimes, too much!?

Kamran HAIDER

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