<B>State of the planet:</B> In these early years of the 21st century, planet Earth continues to face innumerable problems of civilisation: with environment and development, with conflict about human rights, with poverty and equity, both here in Mauritius and globally. In this era of rapid social and technological change the past does not necessarily provide an accurate guide to the future. Essential tools for survival reside rather in anticipation and foresight, in flexibility and readiness to change and adapt, in innovation, coupled with in-depth understanding of how the world operates as well as understanding one’s neighbour.

<B>Some major future trends: </B>The value of Future Studies is to attempt to correctly identify major trends which will “govern” the future and thus enable more accurate and realistic planning for tomorrow’s world.A simple concrete example is that of long-term transportation planning for Mauritius:amongst the main alternatives available and proposed (e.g. dedicated bus-ways or electric rapid-transit trains or again back to living and working locally with only non-motorised transport), which ones are sustainable in view of known major future trends? And what are these trends? In this case of transportation planning, the forthcoming end of the petrol/diesel era and the growth of both IT and face-to-face interactions requiring less and less mass transport morning and evening, may be crucial deciding factors.

Whether applicable to transport or to any other fields, what are these major future trends that will guide the making of tomorrow’sworld? Here is a selection.

<B>Cultural Diversity: </B>Although the trend has been towards uniformity, all of us becoming part of one global system, it is ethnic, cultural, religious and other societal differences between peoples that will increasingly influence national and international affairs in the future. An understanding of this reality and consequent actions are a likely explanation for the success of L’Alliance sociale at the last general elections in Mauritius! An inevitable partner of this diversity is the equity factor (each component of a society getting equal opportunity and its fair share of everything), a factor strongly defended by, amongst others, the United Nations.Unfortunately, in this case the same Alliance Sociale appears to fail (despite verbal declarations to the contrary) to share and involve everyone, a sure recipe for disaster in tomorrow’sworld.

<B>The new centres of the world:</B> The centre for innovation and economic power is now shifting from the Atlantic(USA/WesternEurope+ Japan) to India,China and Korea, to other Asia/Pacific countries, to Brazil and some other Latin American countries and possibly even to Africa and Eastern Europe, including Russia, but as yet it is not clear exactly where or when.The older nations are reacting. Some like France in the energy field (nuclear plus biofuels) may remain, given good governence,in the forefront of development.And no one in his right mind would write off the USA because of the innovativeness of its population and its operation as a free society! These new geographical areas will become more important as they undergo the fastest period of economic expansion in history. Can Mauritius be part of it, like Singapore is likely to be? The governance of each country (that of the US included) remains as always a crucial factor of success.

<B>Gender equity: </B>Women are increasingly taking command of their own lives, at home, at work and in political life. As gender relations become more equal, social priorities will change, and this will have a significant impact on the way in which society is organised and run, most probably for the better.

<B>Biotechnology: </B>This aspect of genetic engineering together with other modern technologies is transforming our lives, whether we like it or not. Biotechnology can lead to the transformation of viral, bacterial, plant and animal breeds as well as, eventually, alteration of human genes, be it for medical purposes only.

Spiritual revival and human values: There are now, fortunately, clear signs of a worldwide religious and spiritual revival, with the acknowledgement that man is foremost a spiritual being. Unfortunately this is also accompanied by the growth of dark fundamentalist forces. In a world of strife and violence, of corruption and greed, the search for living human values is crucial.Hence the importance of human values in education, not just learning about them, but a real integration of values in all aspects of daily life.

<B>Environmental concern: </B>Having been at the forefront of this concern, worldwide, I can only state that it will become even more crucial in the 10/30/70 years to come, as the petrol/fossil fuel era comes to an end, as global warming and climate change take hold and as we sink deeper into polluting “our nest”(i.e. the planet). Increasingly, people are aware of the need to preserve and take care of every inch of this small blue planet, mother Earth.

<B>Wealth and poverty:</B> The nature of the world economic system is such that the gap between the countries of the rich North and the poor South may continue to increase, as well as the gap between the very rich and the “excluded”within the same country or city! This growing gap is alarming, especially when the divide also coincides with obvious ethnic, religious or linguistic divisions, as was evident in last years “burning of cars” riots in France and as is becoming increasingly evident here in Mauritius, despite the best political intentions.

<B>Changing world views: </B>In the West there is (very broadly speaking) a major value shift away from a predominantly scientific and technological view of the world towards a more holistic and “ecological” one.In the East there is a clear shift away from the traditional holistic view of the world and from spiritual values(all taken for granted) towards technology and an IT-based society.These two contradictory trends like two giant Tsunamis may come into collision, unless efforts at integration succeed.In this globalised world, Ruyard Kipling’s “East is East and West is West…..and never the twains shall meet” cannot be true any more, specially after the buyout of Arcelor by Mittal Steel!

<B>Critical thinking: </B>In assessing information, considering trends and imagining alternatives, all of us, but young people in particular, need to exercise reflective and critical thinking.Thus, in Education, the development of critical thinking and of a “scientific temper”(J.Nehru, as quoted by Sonia Gandhi at Pailles in 2005) are way more important than the memorisation or even mastery of facts and figures, which pass as education in some circles.

<B>Conclusion: </B>There is no way I or anyone else can with certainty assemble all the main trends actually in operation in the world.What’s your own analysis?

To your mind, which is the most important trend in the last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st which will have a major impact on the future of the world, Africa, Indian Ocean islands, Mauritius, your family, you?

<B>Dr. Michael ATCHIA [email protected]</B>