The prime minister is expected to reshuffle his cabinet soon, the first shake-up since winning power in mid-2004, but is unlikely to change key economic portfolios in one of the world?s most robust economies. A series of scandals, job moves and deaths have left Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with half a dozen spots that need to be filled before parliament resumes on Nov. 23. ?A reshuffle has been on the cards for some time now. One can expect some announcements before the winter session of parliament,? a senior government official said later this week. But the biggest gap, foreign affairs, is not expected to be filled in what analysts believe will most likely be only a modest revamp.

Singh stripped foreign minister Natwar Singh of his responsibilities last week and made him minister without portfolio after he was named in the Volcker report into irregularities in the UN?s oil-for-food programme for Iraq. But the prime minister, who has taken on foreign affairs himself, has firmly ruled out filling the post and plans to hold it till the outcome of government?s inquiries into the Volcker issue. Besides, analysts say, he is keen to keep the sensitive portfolio at a key time in world scrutiny of Iran?s nuclear ambitions, talks with Washington on nuclear cooperation and a visit by President George W. Bush in early 2006.

?People ... are just slavering at the mouth over Natwar Singh?s job,? says analyst Prem Shankar Jha, ?but replacing him now would send the wrong message.? ?And on the economics side, I don?t see many changes at all.? Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, like the prime minister a well regarded technocrat, is considered to have done a good job guiding the economy and government finances. Such a good job, in fact, that some local media speculate he may be shifted to replace home minister Shirvaj Patil, seen as struggling with his important portfolio.If this happens, still widely considered an outside chance, former central bank governor C. Rangarajan could replace Chidambaram.

Other vacancies include the urban development and parliamentary affairs, vacated by Ghulam Nabi Azad, a member of prime minister?s Congress party which leads the federal coalition, who quit to become the chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir. Fellow Congress lawmaker Jagdish Tytler stood down earlier this year as minister for non-resident Indian affairs after being named in an inquiry into anti-Sikh riots in 1984 and two junior ministers for water resources and coal, members of Congress regional allies, also quit after warrants were issued for their arrest on separate matters. Sports and youth affairs minister Sunil Dutt died in May.

Surojit GUPTA

Terry FRIEL