Today everyone knows the world is overpopulated. The ratio of people to area of land is decreasing day by day. Whether we live in Mumbai or New York or Port Louis, our lives are daily proof. Who can say he has never endured traffic gridlock, especially during peak hours, urban sprawl and environmental depredation.

Just last month the United Nations warned that many of the world?s cities are helplessly overcrowded with miasma of slums and decay. Another bleak survey reports that the populations of the world?s poorest countries will triple in size by 2050, to 1.7 billion people. The evening news also floods us with images of third -world famine, poverty, pestilence, war, global competition for jobs and increasing scarcity of natural resources, yet this is not the full story. To the contrary, the new threat to the planet is not too many people but too few.

Across the world people are having fewer and fewer children. Fertility rates have dropped by half from six children per woman to 2.9. And still, day after day, they are falling, faster and faster. With this trend the world?s population will continue to grow ? from 6.4 billion to around 9 billion in 2050. But, after that, depopulation will start. In so many countries in the world this phenomenon has already begun transforming developing ones.

Most of us are familiar with demographic trends in Europe, where birthrates have been declining for years. To reproduce itself, women must each bear 2.1 children. Europe?s fertility rates fall short of that with this revolutionary transformation.

<B>Fertlity rate lower than 1.3</B>

Germany could shed nearly a fifth of its 82.5 million people over 40 years. And so it is across the whole European continent, with the less-developed word following the same trajectory. In Asia it is well known that Japan will soon tip into population loss, if it has not already. With a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman, the country stands to shed a quarter of its 127 million people over the next four years, according to UN projections. The same scenario appies to China where census data put the fertility rate even lower at 1.3. But mid-century, the country could well lose 20 to 30 percent of its population every generation.

The picture is similar elsewhere in Asia where birthrates are declining even in the absence of such stringent birth-control programs as China?s. To this list can be added Thailand, Burma, Australia and Sri Lanka, along with Cuba and many Caribbean nations, as well as Uruguay and Brazil. Mexico is growing so rapidly that within several decades it will not only stop growing but will have an old population. Mauritius also is no exception with an aging population.

Now let us explore the causes of the birth death. Why, in the last 650 years, since the time of the Black Plague, have birth and fertility rates fallen so far, so fast, so low, for so long, in so many places ? Experts suggest that a variety of independent trends have conjoined to produce a demographic tsunami. The very first reason is that people everywhere are leaving the country side and moving to cities. One there, having a child becomes a cost rather than an asset. So called megacities, from Lagos to Mexico, have exploded seemingly overnight. Birth rates have fallen in inverse correlation.

Other factors are at work. Increasing female literacy and enrolment in schools have tended to decrease fertility, as have divorce, abortion and the worldwide trend toward later marriage. Contraceptive use has risen dramatically over the past decade, and now the capital of global HIV disease has become a factor. Also wealth discourages child bearing, as it has long been the case in Europe and now in Asia ? capitalism is the best contraception.

Another potent contraceptive is pessimism. The notion of global security has become primary for each and everyone. Call it the fear factor. Beginning with the late 90?s Asian financial crisis, external developments have weighed heavier on childbearing decisions. Events like 9/11, the US invasion of Iraq and last Christmas? tsunami give people economic jitters and a sense of hopelessness about the future. How can adults even think about having families if they cannot guarantee a bright future ? The economic crisis hit young people hard with rampant unemployment forcing them to get married later than before and want fewer babies.

<B>Threat to world prosperity</B>

The potential consequences of the population implosion are enormous. Considering the global economy, falling birthrates definitely threaten world prosperity. Whether it is real estate or consumer spending, economic growth and population have always been closely linked. Recent strikes in Germany, Italy, France and Mauritius over the most modest pension reforms are only the beginning of what promises to become a major sociological battle between the older and younger generations.

That will be only a skirmish compared with the conflicts brewing steadily. In Mauritius with an aging population, entirely covered by retirement pensions, the burden is put on the younger depleted generation to bear the cost. Demographic change magnifies all of our country?s problems, social as well as economic. An overburdened welfare state risks collapsing, and this adds to the already morose standard of life.

But none of this is inevitable, of course. Enlightened governments could help hold the line. Certain countries like France and the Netherlands, have instituted family-friendly policies that help women combine work and motherhood, ranging from tax credits for kids to subsidised day care. Some others have generously provided for parental leave, health care and part-time employment.

In Mauritius the closing down of textile and sugar factories has been a blessing in disguise. Who knows ? May be the added spare time and loneliness will inspire our women to, well, do whatever it takes to make more babies. Thus the cycle of life will restore its balance and the show may go on.

<B>Soorab BOODHOO</B>