World leaders are awaiting the US presidential election with bated breath but major shifts in American foreign policy are unlikely whatever the outcome and there will be no change in the world order.

Many of the foreign leaders who supported the US-led invasion in Iraq, such as Italy's Silvio Berlusconi and Japan's Junichiro Koizumi, want President George W. Bush re-elected on Nov. 2 to avoid being left isolated over the war.

Although they might not say it openly, many of the opponents of the war, such as France's Jacques Chirac, want an end to four years of increasing US unilateralism under Bush and would prefer Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, to win.

Other big powers such as China and Russia favour the status quo, preferring the devil they know to the one they don't.

But the jury is out on whether Bush or Kerry can fully restore trust in the United States, and whether Kerry would adopt the more multilateral approach which many allies want.

“There are differences between them but from our point of view they're less sharp than most Europeans in the population perceive them,” said Karsten Voigt, coordinator for German-American cooperation in the German Foreign Ministry.

Annette Heuser, director of the Bertelsmann Foundation thinktank in Brussels, said: “It doesn't really matter who wins. The challenges facing the Europeans will remain the same. Iraq is the key.”

<B>Middle East</B>

The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 was the defining moment of Bush's presidency for many world leaders.

Other key factors were the war on terror declared by Bush after the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, US opposition to the Kyoto protocol aimed at fighting global warming and the US refusal to recognise the International Criminal Court.

Political analysts say major changes are unlikely on these key issues, whoever wins, and would not expect Kerry to abandon the United States's traditional alliance with Israel in the Middle East. Differences with Europe over how to tackle the nuclear threat posed by Iran could remain.

Many Europeans, however, would prefer Kerry – or anyone other than Bush – simply as a breath of fresh air. A recent opinion poll in France, which led opposition to the Iraq war, showed nearly nine out of 10 people would prefer Kerry to win.

“We are in a logic of ‘Anything but Bush’,” said Andre Kaspi, a professor in North American history at Sorbonne University.

Opinion polls in Europe regularly show Bush's style and policies have alienated Europeans.

Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi is most vocal and almost alone among European leaders in openly backing Bush. Most would probably prefer Kerry, and even some of those who supported the Iraq war are hesitant. Poland is talking of withdrawing its troops from Iraq and Republican presidents tend to win sympathy among Poles.

Even British Prime Minister Tony Blair, a Bush ally over Iraq, has reason to think twice. Political observers say he may never be able to rebuild his position in Europe, and achieve his aim of being a U.S.-EU bridge, while Bush is in the White House.

“The conventional wisdom is that a victory for Mr. Bush would be politically the most comfortable for Mr. Blair,” Blair biographer Philip Stephens said.

“In fact, the prime minister needs John Kerry to win. A Democratic White House would give Mr. Blair an opportunity to rebalance Britain's twin relationships with Europe and the US”

<B>Mixed feelings</B>

Conversely, Russian President Vladimir Putin opposed the invasion of Iraq but has made it abundantly clear he wants his old friend to stay in the White House. Putin quickly backed Bush's war on terror and he fears Kerry would increase pressure on him over his democratic record at home and in Chechnya.

In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi has openly backed Bush after sending non-combat troops to Iraq. Japan's leader is also wary of Kerry because, unlike Bush, the democratic contender has not ruled out direct talks with North Korea.

China has kept its views quiet, but diplomats say it probably favours Bush because policymakers are accustomed to him in Beijing, which craves stability at home and abroad.

From Taiwan to trade relations and North Korea's nuclear weapons programmes, Beijing sees a Kerry win as producing only marginal changes in relations.

In Latin America, preferences are connected to bilateral issues. Analysts say Brazil's leaders would prefer Bush to win because they believe he is more open to trade than Kerry.

Cuba remains one of Bush's fiercest critics, but there is no official backing there for Kerry, who says he will maintain a four-decade-old US trade embargo.

<B>Timothy Heritage</B>