<B>Afghanistan</B> heads into a crucial national meeting to clear the way for free elections under a cloud, with the Taliban spreading fear through large parts of the country and US forces embarrassed by the deaths of 15 children.

The Loya Jirga, or Grand Assembly, brings together 500 delegates from around the country on Saturday to finalise a new constitution ahead of Afghanistan?s first-ever presidential elections next year. But two years after the Taliban?s overthrow, the United Nations issued stark warnings this week that efforts to save Afghanistan could fail without more international commitment, and polls might have to be delayed because of rising violence.

Washington has led the way in stepping up aid and is trying to persuade allies to follow suit in what analysts see as a attempt to present Afghanistan as success story in the coming election year to balance against the gloom of Iraq. But significant obstacles and risks threaten that aim, not least because no one seems ready to provide thousands more peacekeeping troops the country desperately needs.

At risk, analysts say, is the entire process of building a new democracy from the rubble and chaos the Taliban left behind. ?Things are going to be looked at very closely by Afghans who are sitting on the fence right now about whether the Constitutional Loya Jirga or even the election are going to be a to be credible processes here,? said Vikram Parekh from the International Crisis Group think tank.

Ever since US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Kabul in May and declared the era of major warfare over and a period of reconstruction underway, Taliban and allied Islamic militants have stepped up attacks around the country. More than 400 people have died in attacks or clashes since then, the bloodiest period since the Taliban?s overthrow, and deliberate targeting of aid workers has severely disrupted humanitarian and reconstruction work. Rumsfeld?s statement seemed even more premature this week when US military said it had launched its biggest ever operation to track down the Taliban and their allies.

It says the operation has helped prevent attacks to disrupt the Loya Jirga, but any positive impact has been diminished by the military?s admission that 15 children died in two strikes last weekend that failed to kill militant leaders they targeted. A statement from Taliban ally Gulbuddin Hekmatyar carried by Arabic television channel al Jazeera overnight said Washington was demoralised in Afghanistan, just as it has been in Iraq. ?America has lost the war in Afghanistan and will leave this country soon,? he said.

A resurgent Taliban has vowed to disrupt the Loya Jirga, which could last several weeks, calling it a US-staged charade and warning that anyone attending deserved to die. Both President Hamid Karzai and US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad have said the threat to the assembly is real, and last Saturday, a bomb exploded in the city of Kandahar, wounding 18 people, in what Karzai said was part of the disruption campaign.

Even without the threat of attack, the Loya Jirga meeting will not be straightforward, and in an interview with Reuters this week, the UN Special Representative to Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi predicted a ?difficult? debate.

Karzai will be trying to persuade delegates to adopt a draft constitution that will give the president sweeping powers. He has vowed he will not stand in polls supposed to be held next June if factional strongmen like Defence Minister Mohammad Qasim Fahim get their way and dilute the president?s power by demanding a prime ministry. Fahim, head of the Northern Alliance forces that helped US-led forces topple the Taliban, has been a thorn in Karzai?s side since then.

David Brunnstrom