PriceWaterHouseCoopers, à travers son Country Leader, André Bonieux, livre son analyse du budget.

Le cabinet d’experts-comptables estime que le ministre des Finances s’est montré étonnamment conservateur pour un budget présenté en une année électorale.

Vous pouvez lire ci-dessous l’intégralité de l’analyse d’André Bonieux.

«The Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economic Empowerment, Dr The Hon. R. Sithanen, G.C.S.K., delivered a surprisingly conservative 2010 Budget in what is to be an election year.  He had indicated that he would act responsibly and our reaction at PricewaterhouseCoopers is that this has generally been the case.

The Budget Speech had strong political undertones with repeated references to the situation in 2005, rather than 2009, but this was no giveaway budget.  The budget deficit for next year is estimated at 4.5% which must be considered reasonable, in the current international context and in an election year - but more on this below.

He has proposed a salary increase of 3.5% for low income earners capped at Rs420 for those earning Rs12,000 and above, monthly.  A political gesture?  Hardly so given the current context of an economy on the brink of recovery and probably needing a push.  The salary increases will undoubtedly add some buoyancy to the Government’s VAT collections!

On the economic front, the Government is staying on track with its Additional Stimulus Package announced last December and the measures will run to December 2010 as initially planned.

Contrary to his last Budget, the Minister went into some details in the proposed environmentally friendly measures – Sustaining Green Mauritius.  We believe that going forward every single government and every single budget speech should make room for a clear declaration of intention on the subject.  Our only chance of achieving fundamental change in the quality of our immediate environment is by Government giving the right tone from the top in a repeated manner and with funds to match.  The long-term impact on our quality of life and the promotion of the island as a quality destination can be far reaching and an engaging journey which we fully support at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

On the social front, we need to highlight an ambitious low cost housing scheme of 5,000 units starting with 600 units next year.

Where is he getting all the money?  Comparing the 12 months to December 2010 to June 2009, revenues are flat except for a substantial increase in property taxes and a transfer of Rs2.3bn from the Additional Stimulus Package fund – some unusual bookkeeping here that requires deeper investigation.  The Budget deficit shows a substantial increase from Rs8.2bn in 2008/09 to Rs13.7bn in 2010. In spite of this, total Government debt as a percentage of GDP – a key economic measure – decreases from 59.6% as at December 2009 to 58.7% at December 2010. Even though the debt percentage is down, an annual deficit of Rs13.7bn is a large figure and this must be brought under stricter control.  We do understand however the need to steer the economy to its recovery.

Our regret in this Budget has been the absence of any reference to structural reforms concerning Government spending and the demonstration that tax revenues are well spent by a cost conscious Government. Spending Rs1.8bn on a new patrol vessel when the Vigilant is sitting in port is a good example of how public money can be wasted.  In most of his previous budgets there was room for this key issue and yet this time round the Minister was silent on the matter.

Further, no mention was made of measures leading to less Government involvement in the productive sectors – quite the contrary in fact as provision is made for the recruitment of 2,600 additional civil servants.  This is some feat when we know our already high national statistics in this area.

He however spent much time going through measures introduced over the last five years and maybe this was not the right forum to share whether our money has been well spent or not – taxpayers probably know the answer in any case!

To conclude, the macro economic parameters are surprisingly healthy – we need to remember that the world is just emerging from its worst recession in 75 years – and we are entering an election year with public finances that are probably the envy of many, personal taxation at an all time low and private investment levels on the rise.  Qui dit mieux?”