<B>REELING</B> off figures to show that crime and AIDS have worsened over the last 10 years of democracy in South Africa, opposition leader Tony Leon says the country is ripe for change at the top.

But Leon?s Democratic Alliance (DA) and ally Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), based in the Zulu heartland of KwaZulu-Natal, have not fooled themselves into believing they can win the April 14 poll. Instead they want just 30 per cent of the vote, compared with under 20 per cent in 1999.

?We have to prevent the ANC from winning two-thirds majority in parliament. We have to prevent a one-party dominance,? Leon told a Johannesburg news briefing this week. A two-thirds majority would allow the ANC to enact constitutional amendments.

The DA, IFP and other opposition groups have addressed hundreds of rallies to woo South Africa?s 21 million voters, dwarfing the ruling African National Congress?s nine major ?Siyanqoba? (We shall conquer) meetings countrywide. The DA alone has put out 3,500 radio campaign advertisements in South Africa?s 11 official languages, erected 375,000 glossy posters and distributed 8.7 million pamphlets to try to force its ?South Africa deserves better? message home.

Some feel the opposition look to be floundering after a sluggish start in the campaign. But a poll released on Friday showed the opposition?s efforts may bear fruit. The MarkData survey of 2,300 South African adults showed the ANC likely to score 65.2 percent ? just a shade under a two-thirds parliamentary majority. Leon has attended 56 campaign events in just under two months of campaigning, from his powerbase of Cape Town to the farming district of Mpumalanga in northern South Africa.

Inkatha?s Mangosuthu Buthelezi, the country?s home affairs minister, has attacked both the ANC and government, claiming policy failures on everything from foreign policy to social service delivery.

The ANC leader, President Thabo Mbeki, makes quick work of such charges: ?Some claim we have failed and yet they were and are still in this government. We must wonder whether they see themselves as failures,? he told an ANC fundraiser in the coastal town of East London last week.

The ANC has mounted massive door-to-door campaigns that have allowed Mbeki rare direct access to South Africans ? wealthy and deeply impoverished ? from whom he has had first hand stories of failure and success of his policies.

In some instances the opposition has copied the door-to-door strategy but because it has appeared to come as an afterthought, it has not been as well received as the ruling party. ?The opposition did not appear prepared for the elections and the ANC strategy has thrown them further into disarray,? said political analyst Dumisani Hlope of the Johannesburg think tank Centre for Development Research. ?The opposition have looked lost on occasion, a sad factor in this election. You have a sense that their strategy of many campaign rallies, appearing to talk at people rather than listen to their concerns and suggest fixing problems, has not been very successful,? Hlope told Reuters.

<B>Manoah Esipisu</B>