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Oil set to hit new peaks this year

19 avril 2006, 00:00

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A blistering four-year rally in crude oil shows no sign yet of running out of steam and crude could top $80 a barrel this year, boosting fuel costs for consumers and businesses, analysts said yesterday.

London’s Brent crude hit an all-time high of $72.20 a barrel yesterday and US crude oil hit a record $70.88, on concern that Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West could cut oil exports from the world’s fourth largest exporter.

“Under the wrong circumstances, you could easily see $80 or even higher than that”, said Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital.

Oil has almost doubled in two years as increasing demand stretches producers and refiners, and worries mount about threats to supply. A wave of fund buying has helped power this year’s rally as investors seek to beat returns available in equities or bonds.

Prices are nearing the inflation-adjusted peaks of over $80 hit in 1980, the year after the Iranian revolution, which some analysts say may prove to be the next peak for prices.

Analysts who use chart patterns to predict oil price moves said Brent has shown little sign of peaking with fresh buying into profit-taking price dips, despite being heavily overbought.

The gains, with last week’s advance confirming an upside break out of a neutral triangle pattern, have left analysts looking at equality projections which flag $72.30, $75 and $76.90 as near-term targets.

US crude from June through the end of the year has soared faster and further than the prompt May contract this month as dealers fear the risks to supplies will grow bigger in the latter half of the year.

<B>Alex Lawler </B>

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