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No dollar no cry...
The dollar staged a rally as investors reduced their euro exposures in the event the outcome from the European Central Bank eurozone monetary policy was less hawkish than expected. The US currency firmed against the euro as stop loss orders in the latter were triggered.
Despite traders braced for a hike of 25 basis points by the ECB, they nevertherless were wary that the accompanying statement proffered a dovish view on the future path of the European interest rates. Market players believed strongly that the ECB would hike up interest rates, but they also believed that the central bank would not be too willing to accelerate the pace of future hikes. The ECB was expected to hike up interest rates to 3.0 percent and investors were more interested in the post-meeting statement by the President Jean-Claude Trichet for an inkling on the stance that the ECB would take concerning European monetary policy. As expected the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted that monetary policy would be tightened if inflation and growth continued to be up to expectations. In fact, Trichet stated that the central bank would scrutinize all economic developments closely while maintaining price stability; hence, boosting market expectation for another hike in October. This speech hit the dollar like a cold shower and fizzled any further rally in the greenback. Toward the end of the week, the downward trend in the dollar persisted after US job creation data smashed expectation that the FED would be hiking up interest rates an 18th time. During the whole of last month, the US economy reportedly added only 113,000 new workers to the payroll list while unemployment rose to 4.8 percent. On the other hand, the euro gathered enough buoyancy to challenge the psychological barrier of $1.30. As darkness loomed over the US dollar, Fed fund futures scaled down their expectations of a FED hike to 16 percent from 43 percent while all other economic indicators were pointing out to the FED pausing.
Against the Mauritian rupee, the Dollar was trading at MUR 31.695 as compared to MUR 31.585 last week
Wild ride for the japanese Yen</B>
Sterling vaulted to a 15-week high against the US dollar as the Bank of England took the market by surprise when it raised borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent. According to the BoE, robust economic growth and inflationary pressures were behind the rate hike. The pound rose to $1.8914 extending gains on a dollar already beaten up badly by the ECB interest rate hike. In addition, news hit the market that the Bank of Italy had diversified its reserves converting a share of its dollar holdings into Sterling. Throughout the week the pound seemed carried away by this bullish momentum and even an unexpected fall in industrial output failed to make a dent in the UK’s currency. All eyes would be turned to the BoE quarter inflation report coming out this week to find fresh clues of whether this hike was a stand-alone or would there be more in store for market players.
Yesterday, the pound was trading at MUR 60.83 as against MUR 59.36 last Tuesday. The yen went for a wild ride throughout last week trading. The Bank of Japan had hinted at gradually rising Japanese interest rates. At its next meeting, the BoJ would be expected to keep interest on hold after increasing it by 25 basis points last month.
Yesterday, the Japanese currency was offered at MUR 27.81 as compared to previous Tuesday when it was offered at MUR 27.82.
<B>Major data/events this week:</B>
■ <B>Wednesday 09 Aug </B> UK International Trade
■ <B>Thursday 10 Aug </B>
US Jobless Claims, US International Trade
■ Friday 11 Aug </B>
US Retail sales
BoJ interest rate decision
■ Monday 14 Aug </B>
UK PPI, Eurozone GDp
■ <B>Tuesday 15 Aug </B>
US Redbook , PPI UK Retail Price Index
<B>Vassan CALEEMOOTOO
HSBC Mauritius Treasury and Capital Markets</B>
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