Future studies are methodologies for studying change and forecasting the future.

Since the future, by definition, is not yet reality, scientists wishing to ?study the future? have had to develop a number of methodologies that are different from traditional scientific methodologies for studying the present and the past. These methodologies range from ?mathematical and quantitative? (left brain methods) to visionary, creative, intuitive (right brain methods), and various combinations in between.

Students of the future are not only interested in looking at probable futures (based on extending past trends and possible new developments) but also at ?designing and planning preferable and more desirable futures?. A wide range of methodologies is employed in future studies. Here are some of the most interesting ones: -

<B>Trend extrapolation </B>(used a lot in population studies): Projects past trends into the future, for some given period of time. Assumes that the future will follow past trends.

<B>Computer modelling</B>: Shows how various variables in different areas interact with each other, within a whole systems context, over time. Some computer models (e.g. of availability of fuels on planet earth over the next 50 years) are strongly influencing the price of various fuels, especially petrol.

<B>Simulations and games</B>: An attempt to take certain variables from «reality» in some area and create a computer model or game situation in which one can see how those variables might interact with each other over time. The ones I know best are the fishing models, where one can increase a factor such as the number of fishing vessels and watch the long term effects on the yield of fish, until the fishery crashes!

<B>Technological forecasting: </B>An attempt to forecast what technological breakthroughs and developments are most likely to occur in future and when they are likely to occur. Was the CD, the digital camera, the mobile phone forecasted? In this age where technology is a major driving force for change, keeping on top of the latest developments in technology is essential for economic success.

<B>Technological impact assessment:</B> Looks at how new technologies are likely to impact on society or the environment.

<B>Environmental impact assessment:</B> Looks at how new developments will impact on the environment. EIAs are legal requirement for many types of building projects in Mauritius

<B>Social impact assessment:</B> Looks at how new developments in some area will, in the short and long-term, impact on society or on specific local communities.

<B>Futures wheels and scenarios: </B>A group brainstorming technique to quickly determine what some of the first, second, and third order consequences might be, ?if? some event were to occur in the future (for example a tsunami, a nuclear explosion or, as I have written in the past, a major oil spill off the coast of this island) Everything follows from this event, placed at the centre of the ?future?s wheel?, considering best case, worst case, most probable case scenarios.

<B>Science fiction: </B>A possible story of what could happen in some future social or world situation. Science fiction does not claim to predict the future, but some imaginative stories later become a reality. Two famous examples are those of Jules Verne (who predicted travel to the moon and to the centre of the earth, nuclear submarines etc) and Arthur Clarke (space travel, the communications satellite etc). In a different area, George Orwell?s novel 1984 predicted accurately the methods later used by the KGB, STASI, MI5, CIA, etc.

<B>Intuition & intuitive forecasting: </B>A ?right brain? ?ala li la? experience, in which you suddenly ?know? something to be true, or you suddenly see patterns and relationships between things that you didn?t see before. Intuition is another way of knowing, a «sixth sense,» beyond the standard five senses. Intuition is important in future studies because in a world in which change is occurring so fast, and one does not always have time to get all the information that one would like before one must make a decision about what to do, one must often rely on one?s intuition to fill in the missing pieces and make a decision. Intuition is also the source of creativity and new ideas-in whatever type of work one is in. Artists, scientists, business executives and statesmen - and in fact all leaders, in whatever the area - all use their intuition to see and plan the future: the successful ones are those who consult all the above methods, not just relying on ?guess-work?.

<B>Relevance trees:</B> A way to map out the sequence of events, and in what order, that are necessary to get from where we are now to where we want to be in 2010, 2020, 2050, 2100 etc. as the end goal.

<B>Complex analysis: </B>This is a method for doing complex planning of great numbers of people and subcontractors working on a very large project, such as the space programme. First developed for use by NASA in planning how to get to the moon (and they succeeded!) Also used, under different forms, in engineering, business and financial management and now by some governments! It is a way to map all the different pathways that must be successfully followed from start at point ?A? to finish at point ?B? which is the desired goal. One also calculates, from all these pathways, what the ?critical path? is. For any event along any given pathway, one adds estimates of personnel, time, budget, equipment, structures etc needed to successfully carry out the activity. If a particular pathway, especially the «critical path», starts getting behind, one can then move additional resources to that pathway, to correct the problem. A complex world such as ours often needs complex solutions. What remains simple is the human endeavour behind (e.g. JFK?s challenge of ?let?s put a man on the moon before the end of the decade? or even NR?s ?mo pou sanze ou la vie? ?I will change your lives?)

Years ago, as a young science teacher and budding scientist, I was fascinated when I first came across future studies. Would you, young or not so young reader of today, have a go at it? It could be more rewarding than you think.

<B>Dr. Michael ATCHIA

[email protected]