<B>SRI LANKANS</B> vote today in a general election that most expect will lead to a deadlocked parliament, further dragging out efforts to end 20 years of civil war with Tamil Tiger rebels.

There has been no major fighting for more than two years, but the widely predicted hung parliament could further put off the resumption of stalled peace talks and delay $4.5 billion in aid to rebuild the country, analysts said.

The two major rivals in the election ? President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe ? differ in their approach to the peace process. Kumaratunga dissolved parliament, forcing the snap election, after accusing the prime minister of giving too many concessions to the Tigers.

An opinion poll on Wednesday showed Kumaratunga?s United People?s Freedom Alliance winning 101 seats in the 225-seat parliament, marginally ahead of Wickremesinghe?s United National Party (UNP) and its coalition partners with 99.

The poll by Org-Smart Opinion Polls, which has a five percent margin of error, implies that neither side will get a clear mandate to carry forward the peace process.

And any possible kingmaker roles could go to a Sinhalese Buddhist party running an all-monk slate of candidates or to the Tamil National Alliance, which is backed by the Tigers.

The Buddhists are strongly opposed to any concessions for the Tigers in peace talks, while the TNA candidates are mostly proxies for the rebels.

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) claim to represent the island?s minority Tamils, and say their community has been discriminated against in jobs and education by the Sinhalese majority.

<B>Final rallies</B>

Voting laws require all campaigning to end two days before election day, and Kumaratunga criticised Wickremesinghe?s economic policies at a final rally late on Tuesday.

?The country has been destroyed in every sector. Either they have started the destruction or completed it already,? she said.

?There has been no fighting for two years, but the absence of war does not mean there is peace. There has to be a long-term solution,? she added.

Wickremesinghe has campaigned solely on his record of presiding over the longest period of peace since the war started in 1983 and says he needs a new mandate to translate that into a permanent peace.

?For the first time in two decades, on one hand, elections are being held without the fear of war; on the other hand, there is a free and fair election without political interference,? he said.

?If you want a peaceful and new nation, vote for the UNP.?

Political analysts are worried a hung parliament would hamper efforts to restart the peace bid with Tigers.

Both Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe say they will resume the peace talks as soon as possible if their parties win, but the LTTE has said it would deal only with someone who had a mandate and the power.

?This is a challenge for Tamils to show the strength of Tamil nationalism,? Sutha Thangan, deputy leader of the Tigers? political wing, said in Jaffna in the Tamil heartland in the north of the country.

But the Tigers themselves have been rocked by a split in their ranks. Rajan Sathiyamoorthy, a Tamil National Alliance (TNA) candidate who was aligned to the breakway faction, was shot and killed in the eastern town of Batticaloa on Wednesday. About 70 people died in the last election in 2001, and this campaign has so far been considered less violent, with only one other confirmed election-related murder, the shooting of a Tamil representing Wickremesinghe?s party, also in Batticaloa.

A Tamil rebel-backed party could hold the key to forming Sri Lanka?s next government if, as predicted, Friday?s general election produces a deadlocked parliament.

The vote is the first since the outbreak of the island?s civil war in 1983 in which the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have endorsed a party, throwing their intimidating weight behind the Tamil National Alliance (TNA).

But that could also complicate matters if a government had to rely on the TNA for its power while at the same time was negotiating with the Tigers to permanently end a conflict in which more than 64,000 people have died.

?Whoever has to form the government will have to rely on the support of the smaller parties. What is the basis for that support? What price might they extract?? said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, head of the independent Centre for Policy Alternatives.

With the TNA projected to get 16 to 20 seats in the 225-seat parliament, and neither of the two big parties seen winning an outright majority, its backing could supply the winning margin.

The TNA would only ever be expected to give support to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe?s United National Party.

<B>Slim prospects</B>

But the other significant minority party in the house could be a Sinhala Buddhist party running an all-monk slate of candidates. Projected to win between four and nine seats, they would be more likely to back President Chandrika Kumaratunga?s United People?s Freedom Alliance.

Kumaratunga, who is not up for re-election, sacked Wickremesinghe?s government in February, accusing her arch-rival of being too soft on the rebels.

?If you had a UNP government which had to rely on the support of the TNA in order to govern, it will be probably open to the charge of being held hostage by proxy to the LTTE,? Saravanamuttu said.

Wickremesinghe said before formal campaigning ended on Wednesday that the problem would not arise.

?We?re going to have a majority. The TNA will in the early parliament support us on many issues, but they will sit in the opposition.?

Officials said prospects for a free vote had already been marred by violence and intimidation in the north and east, with three shootings in the past week ? all of ethnic minority Tamils ? shattering the relative calm of the campaign.

?Certainly in the east we are extremely worried because of the context -- there have been murders and a lot of tension between the different political parties,? said Sunila Abeysekera of the Centre for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV).

A TNA kingmaker role has also been complicated in recent weeks by a split in the Tigers, with a strong eastern commander challenging the movement?s leaders in the north.

That could result in a rift within the TNA, with most supporting the north and several backing breakaway commander Karuna, the nom de guerre for V. Muralitharan.

?It has muddied the waters a bit,? said one Tamil official close to the rebels in London where the LTTE has its international headquarters.

?I am not sure that either of the big Sinhala parties can ever govern with a Tamil component,? he said.

<B>Scott McDonald</B>