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Deadly quake renews fears of the “Big One”
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Deadly quake renews fears of the “Big One”
The deadliest earthquake to hit Japan in a decade is a grim reminder to the 12 million residents of Tokyo that a killer quake could hit the capital at any time. And experts said yesterday that even though readiness for the “Big One” had improved in recent years, much needed to be done.
Buildings shook and swayed in Tokyo on Saturday and following days when a 6.8 magnitude quake and hundreds of aftershocks hit the Niigata area, 250 km (155 miles) to the north. At least 25 people in Niigata region were killed and 2,200 injured in the powerful series of tremors.
Niigata, however, is largely rural. A similar magnitude quake in Tokyo, one of the world’s leading financial centres, would kill thousands and send shockwaves through world markets. Saturday’s quake was the deadliest in Japan since 1995 when a 7.2 magnitude tremor killed more than 6,400 in the city of Kobe. As bad as that was, Tokyo’s Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 killed 20 times as many people – more than 140,000.
“If a quake like the one in Niigata hit Tokyo, the damage would be terrible,” said Tsuneo Katayama, president of the non-profit National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention in Tokyo. “The death toll would be like that of Kobe,” he said. Experts have long said that another big quake is overdue.
In August, a government earthquake panel said there was a 70 percent chance that a quake of around magnitude 7.0 would hit Tokyo in the next 30 years, although it said the risk of a Great Kanto-type quake was 0.8 percent or lower. The Tokyo city government has said an earthquake of magnitude 7.2 could kill more than 7,000 people and injure close to 160,000 while destroying or heavily damaging more than 140,000 buildings.
Worst scenario </B>
The Niigata quake showed that government preparations have improved, experts said, though much still remained to be done. “Both local officials and the military were able to be on the scene much earlier, and this really helped,” said Takehiko Yamamura, head of the private Disaster Prevention System Institute. “It wasn’t perfect, but definitely much better.”
Collapsing houses killed several people in Niigata, and experts said much of the damage in Tokyo would also centre on traditional wooden houses and the likely ensuing gas-fed fires. “The worst scenario is if a quake hit after midnight, while people are asleep in their homes,” Katayama said. “The buildings would collapse and then fires would sweep through.” Despite the potential for disaster, there has been no rush to take preventive measures. A 1997 report by the city government showed that Tokyo had over 1.6 million houses built before 1981. Damage to the financial system from a massive quake in Tokyo is difficult to predict, but likely to be huge.
Tokyo alone accounts for 17 percent of the Japan’s gross domestic product – bigger than the GDP of Australia. “There would be a huge long-term impact,” said Masatoshi Suzuki, at Japan Research Institute. “Just the damage from infrastructure failure would be like nothing we’ve ever seen.” This was true even in Niigata, where thousands yesterday were still without basic utilities and 60 communities were cut off after landslides destroyed roads. “The weakness of all the lifelines that support us economically and socially has been shown,” the Yomiuri Shimbun daily said in an editorial. “This must be changed.” But the main lesson from Niigata may be more bleak.
“It would not be strange if an earthquake like this took place anywhere in Japan, at any time,” the Asahi Shimbun said. “All of us must consider what we can do to reduce damage.” Tokyo residents worry, but for many this has not translated into action.
“The quake was big and long, it made me very nervous,” said Mayumi Sato, 38, a technical writer who works from home. “Everyone I know is nervous about a quake in Tokyo, but nobody really does anything about it,” she added. “I filled a knapsack with emergency goods after Kobe, but now I don’t even know where it is.”
<B>Elaine Lies</B>
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