The end of 2004 will be remembered for the tsunami disaster that struck South East Asia. What is astonishing is not just the scale of the disaster but that all the affected nations, including a nuclear power, India, were completely surprised by this devastating onslaught of nature. The earthquake that unleashed the waves occurred some three hours before the waves reached the shores.

?<B> Why no early warning?</B>

Most people find it difficult to believe that the Diego Garcia US base was oblivious of the catastrophe or that satellites did not register such an oceanic anomaly. Was there enough information to forewarn the affected nations so that they could have taken measures?

It is unsure what mechanism could have been deployed. The time of day, relative affluence and literacy of the population are factors that have a direct bearing on the choice of media: several mechanisms would probably need to be deployed to reach the majority.

The real question is the potential value of an early warning in saving lives. Since there was none, it is pure conjecture whether lives could have been saved. People would probably have ignored the warning. On the other hand, had enough people heeded the warning, criminal elements could have seen an opportunity for looting thus creating a large-scale law and order problem and the stampede to escape could have caused many casualties.

An early warning provision could be seen as counter to the interests of countries: it could lead to adverse publicity and holiday cancellations that would impact severely on the income of countries dependent on tourism.

?<B>Where is God?</B>

The tsunami affected countries and individuals of all faiths and ages, rich and poor alike. Was it divine retribution? It is unlikely that God had anything to do with a disaster whose cause can so easily be explained by geology. After all, divine retribution can hardly be so discrete as to strike only the Indian Ocean. Are there no sinners elsewhere? Why did some survive, against all odds? The answer is beyond the reach of humanity as much as the perennial ?Why am I here?

The immediate and instinctive response was the re-unification of humanity: everybody wanted to help to alleviate the hardship. In affected areas, this has entailed the suspension of inter-racial hostilities such as the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. Elsewhere, humanity has rallied to raise funds in an unprecedented generosity.

Of course, such widespread altruism is short-lived. Relatives are claiming orphans: the objective could be compensations to the orphans. UK television reported one instance of an infant being claimed by five sets of parents. Of course, there are genuine cases of adoption and other compassionate acts. But there are also reports of orphans abducted for the sleazy sex trade.

?<B>International politics</B>

UK and US leaders would have us believe that Iraq could have deployed its weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes. Yet, the international community took nearly a week to provide hands-on assistance in terms of expertise, personnel, medicine and food. The G7 nations have announced debt suspension for a year for affected nations. Time will tell how altruistic this gesture is. Will all of the £1 billion pledged by the international community materialise? The promise that the Indian Ocean will have an early warning system means nothing except on delivery.

?<B>The international media</B>

The media?s repeated broadcast of the same footage finally leads to viewers? compassion fatigue. It is only a matter of time before the media leave the tsunami-affected area. As with Ground-Zero, Afghanistan, Iraq, and others, the world will gradually learn to forget the Asian tsunami. The real responsibility for rebuilding lies on the shoulders of the governments of affected countries. Recovery depends above all on local initiative.

?<B>What about Mauritius?</B>

Mauritius is right in the middle of the Indian Ocean. It is very fortunate that our island was unaffected. But is it prepared? Is there a disaster recovery plan? It is the process whereby the resumption of normal business begins accounting for the casualties, rebuilding the infrastructure, and re-enabling the domestic, physical, trade networks and the international one. Mauritius has so little to offer as an undeveloped country without the natural resources prized by international benefactors. Mauritius has to be strong enough to look after itself.

Mauritius has a national personal identification scheme. Is the database robust enough to account for the local population? It is reported that, at any one time, there are some 4,000 tourists on the island. Is there some way of tracking their whereabouts? How quickly can Mauritius render an accurate quantitative account of its population?

?<B>Areas at risk</B>

No doubt, some parts of the island are more at risk than others. For political and economic reasons, it may be unwise to publicise them. However, their identification is necessary if the government is to react efficiently in terms of rescue and restoration. Without this information, it is impossible to plan for any contingency. It will enable a projection of the number of people that might be affected and a rough estimate of the ability to nurse, house, and feed casualties.

Every aspect of the economy is affected by a disaster. To recover, the medical profession has to cope with casualties, the building sector has to prioritise its projects, the agricultural sector needs to avert the shortage of local produces, and the education system needs to be restored. All require working transport, communication, water supply, and sanitation infrastructure.

?<B>Points of failure</B>

Whatever the plans might be, they will remain untested until, God forbid, the event occurs. Only then, will failure points become apparent. For example, a stray water buffalo in Aceh, Indonesia, caused an incident with a landing plane. This caused the airport to close for the whole day. The lack of heavy machinery and building materials are hampering the clearing of the debris and delaying the start of the reconstruction programme. In the case of Mauritius, the lack of a computerised database of land title deeds and the topology may well trigger a series of legal disputes that will have the same effect.

?<B> A prayer</B>

In the wake of unexpected and foreseen natural disasters, humanity finds itself helpless: it can but pray both for the survivors and those who perished alike. Let us pray, above all, for the divine safekeeping of our planet and within it our small island. We are bound by the same destiny, irrespective of religion, class, and wealth; what we do to or what happens to our planet affects us all across the globe. It is wise to remember that God created Earth first, and then Man.

by Ajay Askoolum