Russian President Vladimir Putin wants George W. Bush to be reelected, Osama bin Laden undoubtedly wants him to be reelected, and the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council has just endorsed him for reelection, so it's hardly surprising that one of my sons has done the same. He must remain nameless, of course, but he has given me permission to quote his exact words on the subject of Mr Bush's candidacy: "He has sown the wind; let him reap the whirlwind."

There is no way that Iraqi hostility to the American occupation can be turned around at this point, and the current outbreak of fiscal irresponsibility in the US ? a huge budget deficit and a huge trade deficit, amounting to almost half a trillion dollars each ? will certainly result in a great deal of economic pain and misery for ordinary Americans in the coming years. We all know who got the US into Iraq and who created the budget deficit, but the man who is president when military defeat and economic crisis can no longer be denied will bear the political blame.

The main concern of Nameless was that a Kerry election victory, followed by a humiliating scuttle from Iraq and a crash in the US dollar at home, would generate a "Dolchstoss" myth on the American right. He was referring to the alleged "stab in the back" by the German left that was used to explain away Germany's defeat in the First World War. (In fact, the left had loyally supported the war, but had little say in its conduct ? until, after Germany's generals admitted irretrievable military defeat on the Western Front, the government was swiftly handed over to the Social Democrats so they could surrender and take the blame.)

Many on the American right still believe that the Vietnam war that could have been won if only the spineless traitors of the left had not weakened American "resolve" -- and they say this even though President Richard Nixon, who was elected on a promise to end the Vietnam war and presided over the whole latter phase of it, was a Republican. What could they do with a lost war on a Democratic president's watch?

The war in Iraq is unwinnable for the same reason as the Vietnam war, and all the other wars of the 50s, 60s and 70s in which Western armies tried to beat local resistance movements. The Western armies won almost all the battles and imposed casualties on the insurgents at a ratio of ten-to-one or even more, but the locals had an inexhaustible supply of angry young men who were willing to die.

The Western occupiers had to contend with voters at home who could not see why their children should be killed in faraway places in wars fought for imperial power, economic advantage, or obviously misconceived "strategic" reasons. As the casualty toll rose, eventually they would rebel at the cost of the war and force the government of the day to bring the army home. It will happen that way in Iraq, too ? unless Senator John Kerry is lying and secretly intends to pull American troops out right away if he is elected.

That would minimise the humiliation suffered by the United States, but it would still be seen by most Americans as a humiliation, and the Democratic Party would pay a high price for it politically unless post-occupation Iraq miraculously turned into a Middle Eastern Switzerland. Staying longer would only make the eventual humiliation greater, so Senator Kerry has no good options. Except, maybe, to lose the election.

It is Hobson's choice, and I am almost glad I do not have a vote in this election: it saves me from the responsibility of choice.