<B>By Soobaraj Sok Appadu (ex- Director Meteorological Services) Subash .Chacowry, (Formely, high official of World Meteorological Organisation)</B>

Scientific evidence of climate change is overwhelming. Global warming is real. Increase in temperature, observed sea level rise and changes in weather patterns serve as advance warnings. Nobody can be indifferent. All signals point to human interference. A 2° C rise in temperature may lead to sudden and drastic damage to ecosystems. This tipping value is expected to be reached within the lifetime of the present generation. Already, flora and fauna bear the brunt as evidenced by unprecedented and accelerated disappearance of numerous species.

<B>Global security at risk </B>

Undernourishment and water scarcity ? a scourge in many parts of the world - will become more prevalent. Developing countries in Africa, South America and Asia will be most exposed and will be least able to adapt and overcome the adverse impacts. The island countries are under increasing threat from sea level rise, and accompanying coastal erosion, increased variations in rain water availability and the occurrence of more intense tropical cyclones.

For the UN Security Council climate change and its consequences including mass migration and dwindling water resources may soon represent serious global security risk. Can we do something to reverse these trends? Most agree that we still can. But time may be fast running out.

<B>The new climate deal</B>

The onus is on the annual climate change conference in Bali. It comes this week in the wake of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to Al Gore.

The high level of public sensitization offers a rare opportunity for all nations to reach a consensus on a comprehensive climate change agreement, a roadmap to implement policies for a better future and a breakthrough to produce a new agreement by 2009. The new deal will replace the Kyoto Protocol which expires by 2012.

Nations will aim at embracing an agenda that will promote reduction of carbon dioxide emissions without undermining future development prospects. Negotiations are expected to be difficult. But what are the major issues to be addressed?

● Greenhouse gas emissions taxes, international carbon trading system, halt to the present deforestation trends and provision of resources and new technologies to developing countries to adapt to the disastrous impacts of climate change.

● Conservation and wider use of renewable energy sources at affordable costs.

● Increasing threat to the aspiration and development prospects of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) as enshrined in Mauritius Strategy adopted in 2005.

Economic transformation and sustainable development

The fight against global warming is not merely to ensure a more secure world for all nations but it is also meant to guarantee equitable and sustainable living conditions for generations to come. What is needed is a major social, economic, political and cultural transformation.

In the past century economic transformation was followed by industrial and agricultural revolutions. Technological revolution led to the most recent era of globalization. The Bali Conference may pave the way for another great change ? The Age of the Green Economics.

This transformation will mean a better lifestyle but will exact a reduction in the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases which are responsible for global warming. Developed countries as well as developing ones are aware of the urgency to maximize their efforts to implement green economics. This cannot be achieved without contributions from people at grassroots level.

<B>What is expected of Bali?</B>

The recent signature of the Kyoto Protocol by Australia is a good omen. Several developed and developing countries are showing the way to a more intense green economic development. However, the complexity and cross-cutting elements addressing climate change issues may slow down negotiations and precious decisions may not be taken.

Nevertheless we have a historic opportunity to establish mechanisms for an ecofriendly transformation of the global economy and contribute to the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals of halving poverty by 2015.

Scientists have produced the evidence of human imprint on climate change. Policy neutral findings on vulnerability and mitigation measures are enshrined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Now in Bali, the challenge to act rests with policy makers. We expect leadership and long-term commitment from them for binding solutions to the looming threats of climate change. In particular, we require from them:

● Commitment to give a chance to green economics and green development, and to the

● Adoption of a global framework so that the people of the world can coordinate their efforts to curb, within a science-based timeframe, the adverse effects of global warming.

The SIDS should raise their voices, as did the Mauritian Prime Minister during his recent intervention at the UN General Assembly, so that sustained funding sources are placed at their disposal to implement adaptation measures for increased resilience. In turn, they should show commitment by adopting some mitigation measures, especially in energy saving.

To quote UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, "Handled correctly, the fight against global warming could set the stage for an eco-friendly transformation of the global economy". Policy makers will have to assume their responsibility at Bali.