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The pound sterling plays and wins at casino royal…
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The pound sterling plays and wins at casino royal…
The US dollar jumped back on its own feet after a report showed that the US trade gap narrowed in November for the third consecutive month. Such data helped to wane concern that the Federal Reserve was contemplating an interest rate cut in the first half of this year.
As news hit the market that the US trade deficit had shrunk to its smallest since July 2005, the greenback soared across the board to hit its highest level since November 22. As the trade gap narrowed, concerns about its long-term drag started to ease on the dollar boosting capital inflows into the USA. According to analysts the dollar got increasing support from the positive impact of higher US exports on forth-quarter economic growth.
Euro zone interest rates on hold</B>
In addition, the dollar got a sudden jolt when the European Central Bank stated that they might not increase interest rate next month as commonly believed. This poured cold water on the euro as ECB President Jean Claude Trichet’s remarks were unclear on whether interest rates would rise next month or not. He added, after the ECB kept euro zone interest rates on hold at 3.5 percent, that the monetary policy remained accommodative but the central bank left off the term “strong vigilance” from its statement. However, many analysts believed that a 25-basis-point rate hike in March was more likely.
Towards the end of the week, robust jobs and retail sales data dampened expectations of near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve causing the market to keep on consolidating. Analysts would be watching US producer price index data this week to find clues for the future path of the dollar. Against the Mauritian rupee, the dollar was trading at MUR 33.731 yesterday compared to MUR 33.62 a week earlier.
British interest rates raised</B>
The Bank of England penchant for surprise should not be undermined as it shockingly raised British rates of interest to 5.25 percent in the middle of the week. Analysts expected that UK’s borrowing cost would remain on hold this month with an anticipated interest hike in February or in March. Many analysts got taken off guard and they believed that the BoE’s move was a pre-emptive strike ahead of inflation data. Many traders had started to re-position themselves for an eventual leg higher than the psychologically key $ 2 pound level.
The week actually did not started well for the pound. It hobbled weakly around, slipping against the dollar when data showed that the UK’s trade deficit in November were bigger than previously expected. The UK trade gap widened to 7.19 billion pounds, more than analysts had expected. In fact, negative Sterling sentiment persisted throughout the day when US data showed the contraction of the US trade deficit. Against the Mauritian rupee, the Sterling was trading at MUR 67.73 yesterday as compared with MUR 66.77 a week earlier.
The yen sufferings still persisted due to its low yielding status even as investors saw the odds tilting in favor of the Bank of Japan raising rates at it next policy meeting this week to 0.5 percent. The central bank chief economist, Hideo Hayakawa, helped drive benchmark Japanese government bond yields to two-month highs during the previous session by saying that consumer spending should pick up this year and that forth-quarter growth would be solid. Against the Mauritian rupee, the yen was trading at MUR 28.93 as compared with MUR 29.22 a week earlier.
<B>Vassan Caleemootoo Contributed by HSBC</B>
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