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Rising oil prices fuel anxiety for the future

4 octobre 2005, 00:00

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lexpress.mu | Toute l'actualité de l'île Maurice en temps réel.

Economic experts have not stopped ringing the alarm bell and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has unfortunately confirmed that Mauritius has reason to be anxious about the future. The new, though not unexpected, element of increased fuel prices could have far-reaching effects of a devestating nature, coming as it does on top of already serious problems.

Mauritius is already experiencing a crisis in the textile sector, added to the uncertain future of sugar and the lack of a trained labour force to support new sectors like Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), the knowledge hub or financial services, which could boost the economy.

“The IMF fears the impact that the increase in oil prices will have on the economy. First there is a direct impact on petrol prices but there will also be side-effects. However, it is still difficult to state to what extent,” commented the minister of Finance, Rama Sithanen. The rise will certainly not help the budget deficit and public debt, which are in a very tight corner.

International banker Percy Mistry has already announced that Mauritius is going towards an economic crisis that could be compared to the one of 1982. The state budget has dropped non-stop while the declining traditional industries have led to rising unemployment. The revenues of the state are decreasing and it is getting more and more indebted.

The IMF reports that all economic parameters have experienced deterioration between June 2004 and 2005. In fact, the minister of Finance explained that such bad statistics are linked to the reduction of receipts in the textile sector due to the end of the quotas effective since January, the planned drop in sugar prices and the rise in oil prices.

Finding other financial resources</B>

According to Rama Sithanen, the only way of reducing the consequences of such crises would be to find other financial resources. However, “as Mauritius is considered as a middle-income economy, there is no possibility of benefiting from loans at preferential rates.” The Barbados meeting of the Commonwealth Finance ministers and the annual general assembly of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington were not only opportunities for Mauritius to express its needs but also to make contacts with eventual financial backers such as the IMF, the WB, the African Bank of Development (ABD) and the Arab Bank of Development (ABDEA).

The latter is planning a visit to Mauritius at the end of the year to see what projects it could finance. The WB proposed to give technical support to improve tax collection as well as the preparation of a country economic memorandum. Moreover the International Financial Corporation and the Commonwealth fund are thinking of financing projects to develop small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

The minister made a plea for a mixed solution: he requested that part of financing be at market rate and the other at a preferential rate. He also suggested that loans be granted in rupees to reduce risks linked to exchange rates.

This may indeed help to put Mauritius back on track… But it might not be enough. A successful change requires that the State stops its popular measures such as free transport or universal pension. Municipal elections are over and both public and private sectors have to go back to work – together!

<B>Energy-saving campaign</B>

The price of petrol has gone up from Rs 25.25 to Rs 29 while diesel has risen from Rs 17.25 to Rs 19.80 according to the Automatic Pricing Mechanism. Such a rise will not only impact on motorists but on the population at large. It will alsohave an undeniable impact on imported consumer goods, as freight costs are bound to increase. The government hopes to reduce the country’s dependence on petrol in the long-term but it will need the support of the population to succeed. The minister of Public utilities, Abu Kasenally, has launched a national energy saving campaign. The aim of this “aggressive campaign” through radio and television adverts is to enable the State to save Rs 200 million, which corresponds to domestic energy consumption. “We can achieve it if each Mauritian makes an effort to support energy preservation,” Abu Kasenally pointed out. The Central Electricity Board should also supply each house with a leaflet, giving measures and advice about how to reduce energy consumption.

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