Despite a belated stab at unity, relations between the top two in politics have hit such a low that rumours are circulating Tony Blair may be driven to fire his powerful Chancellor Gordon Brown. If Blair wins May?s expected election with a large majority, the argument goes, the prime minister could free himself of Brown?s dominance of domestic policy and chart his last term in power on a radical course.

Some suggest Blair may offer Brown the position of Foreign Secretary, a role Brown?s allies say he would view as a demotion and unlikely to accept. But more sober politicians and analysts say that even with a third election win behind him, Blair is highly unlikely to remove Brown, despite a bitter row over who should be running the government.

?We would be looking at civil war straight after the election. Surely, that could not help either of them,? one Labour MP said. The financial markets could be disquieted by the departure of Brown, who has presided over nearly eight years of solid economic growth, coupled with low inflation and is the longest-serving finance minister among the world?s rich nations.

And Blair knows his hopes of winning a referendum, promised in 2006, on the European Union?s new constitution, could be dashed without the full support of the more EU-cautious Brown. A defeat there, would probably hasten the end of the pro-European Blair?s reign, allowing Brown to take over. Latest polls show more than 60 percent of Britons oppose the constitution. Blair will need all hands on deck to change that.

But there is no doubt conflict will continue to simmer. The decade-old antagonism flared again last week as a new book by journalist Robert Peston claimed Blair had told Brown over a year ago he would make way for him late in 2004.

True or not, Blair later declared he wanted to serve a full third term in power but not a fourth, further delaying the time when Brown could take over. Political history shows the assassin rarely wins the crown ? Conservative heavyweight Michael Heseltine challenged Margaret Thatcher but it was the little-known John Major who became leader after her fall.

But if Brown were sacked, many Labour MPs would feel he was entitled to confront Blair. And the prime minister has plenty of modern-day reminders of the havoc a scorned colleague can wreak. Thatcher?s fall from grace started after her finance minister, Nigel Lawson, and Foreign Secretary, Geoffrey Howe, quit her government to snipe from the sidelines. With Brown enjoying massive support among Labour MPs, he would be a far more damaging enemy to Blair.

Mike PEACOCK