The countdown is on for the next general elections and political parties will have to prove they are capable of taking responsibility for the country’s destiny. The latest political poll conducted by Synthèses for l’express shows that many citizens have not made their decision yet. As Eric Bertrand from Synthèses explains, “the dice are not cast yet”. This phrase speaks volumes on the situation. Although the government is still ahead of the opposition, its popularity has dropped.

30% of Mauritians would vote for the governing alliance if elections were held now while 21% would give their votes to the opposition alliance – Labour party – PMXD –MR - MMSM. The figure for the government was 41 % in June 2004 and 43% in February.

One might have thought that this drop would serve the opposition’s interest but that is far from being the case. Although the gap is narrowing between both blocks, the opposition has also faced a drop in voters’ intentions: from 23% in February to 20.7% in November.

There is uncertainty among more than 30% of the people questioned: 13% would probably abstain and 20% would not know whom they would vote for. This is the sign that political parties should renew their strategies and make strong decisions, which would tip the balance for one or the other. “Many people cannot make a definite choice; they are not involved in events. This is more or less a call for more action, a call for more information on ideas, programs…” explains Eric Bertrand.

Since 20% of the people questioned have not taken a decision yet, this means that these 20% can still be won over by future actions and programs. If no block succeeds in making them join their group, then the strength ratio will remain as it is now – with the governing alliance slightly ahead. But, if one of them manages to mobilize the undecided, then the scales would tip.

52% of the persons questioned are satisfied with the government’s achievements. This result is not bad as such but the opinions favourable to the government have gone down since June when it scored 58%. Likewise, around 66% of the people questioned are satisfied with Paul Bérenger as prime minister. “The discontent is far from being a general trend. Today, the opinion seems be that the opposition remains more as a counterbalance than an alternative to power,” says Eric Bertrand.

The main loser in these “virtual elections” is undeniably the Mouvement Socialiste Mauricien (MSM). If general elections were held next Sunday, 21.8% of those questioned would vote for the MMM, 19.4% for Labour and only 5.8% for the MSM. This trend is practically the same as in June for the MMM and Labour while the MSM seems to have lost 6% of vote intentions.

Observers say this fall has nothing to with its leader, Pravind Jugnauth, but with the party itself. Statistics have proved them right: even if Pravind Jugnauth doesn’t benefit from the same popularity as the two other leaders, the preference is less marked. Actually there is no unanimous support for any of the party leaders: 29% favour Paul Bérenger, 27% Navin Ramgoolam and 18% Pravind Jugnauth. Political analysts observe that the MSM has not got over the by-election in Piton-Rivière-du-Rempart and it has difficulty in developing its own identity compared to its partner, the MMM. The fate of the MSM leader is referred to as a “leader with no party.”

In other words, it is in the MSM’s interest to go to the next elections with its present partner, the MMM. Of course, it should first define its strategy and give character to this party, known as the “party of the establishment”. But a new alliance with the MMM, which still benefits from the general preference (despite the drop), seems what the MSM needs. Moreover, 41% of the people questioned admit they would like the ruling alliance after the 2005 elections to be the MSM-MMM alliance against 26% for a Labour-MMM alliance and 17% a MSM-Labour one.

What this survey suggests for the moment is that the alliances should remain as they are for the main parties in power if they wish to be re-elected. However, after this poll, Labour might want to change its strategy and join other groups to guarantee good results in the elections… The dice are not cast yet but the game of alliances is already open…

<I>The main loser in these “virtual elections” is undeniably the Mouvement Socialiste Mauricien. If general elections were held next Sunday, only 5.8% of the people would vote for them.</I>