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India’s global energy map affected by rising oil prices

30 septembre 2004, 20:00

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As India’s giant economy revs up, its thirst for oil is expected to grow 4 per cent every year for the next 20-odd years, compared to about 2 per cent for the rest of the world. This will make them, along with China, the US and Japan, one of the largest energy consumers globally. Meanwhile, imported oil is expected to jump to 85 per cent of total consumption from today’s 70 per cent level. So, India’s role and clout is likely to increase dramatically in global energy markets. Given India’s growth priorities, policymakers need to concentrate on two things – secure energy supplies and relatively stable prices. As global crude rates hit $50 per barrel, diplomacy has to shake off the stupor of three-martini lunches and focus on securing energy supplies. Oil and gas minister Mani Shankar Aiyar, an ex-diplomat, has done the right thing by focusing on extending India’s energy reach overseas.

Several years ago, state-owned ONGC’s overseas arm, OVL, ventured into icy Siberia, picking up equity in Sakhalin oilfields. Since then, state-owned companies have ventured into Vietnam, Myanmar and lately, Sudan. Aiyar is pushing deals that will give India a toehold in Venezuela, Angola and the Caspian basin. It could also pick up equity in a proposed pipeline connecting the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and exploration blocks in Egypt and Libya.

One of the most vital links in India’s global energy strategy centres around its partnership with Iran, which has huge reserves of oil and gas. India will buy liquefied natural gas from Tehran, and could get to operate oilfields there. In addition, New Delhi, Tehran and Islamabad can agree with each other, a natural gas pipeline could run all the way from Iran’s gas fields through Pakistan, to India. The opening up of a land route across Pakistan to Iran will provide India with right of way right through to Central Asia, rich in energy resources. Sceptics say that this is a high-risk strategy – many of these countries have troubled politics.

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