Hong Kong’s largest pro-Beijing party scored a stunning success in the city’s last legislative elections in 2000, but on Sunday it faces a tough fight to retain its lead.

Observers say the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment (DAB) of Hong Kong could serve as a convenient punching bag for voters angry with the China-backed government and with Beijing for ruling out full democracy in the city for several years at least.

Public anger with the party is so great that analysts say it will be lucky if it can hold onto its current 10 seats in the 60-member Legislative Council, Hong Kong’s top lawmaking body. Political alliances give pro-China forces 34 seats in the house.

DAB Chairman Ma Lik, who underwent an operation for colon cancer in August, said his party faced a tough fight but that in the end most voters would not be willing to anger China, which is Hong Kong’s economic lifeline.

“We believe we can keep our 10 seats,” Ma said.

The party has fielded a record 30 candidates, half of them new faces, to take part in the Sept. 12 election that is expected to be the fiercest ever fought in the former British colony that returned to Chinese rule in 1997.

Hong Kong’s 7 million residents would opt for stability, he said. “People know it won’t do to have the legislature dominated by the opposition,” he said. “They have threatened to paralyse the government and confront Beijing. Hong Kong’s ties with Beijing will deteriorate.”

Democrats have denied such charges, saying they would work with leaders in Hong Kong and China if they win a majority.

But for the first time, democracy candidates have at least a chance at winning majority control in the legislature, which has for years been dominated by lawmakers from pro-China parties. Analysts say that prospect clearly worries Beijing, which fears democratic lawmakers would then challenge its authority.

“The DAB is facing its biggest crisis ever. It’s hard for it to convince voters to support it because it has lost their confidence,” said politics lecturer Timothy Wong. “People question its integrity ... They see the party as working more for the interests of Beijing and less for Hong Kong people.”

To limit election damage and reach new voters, the DAB has increasingly focused its campaign on social issues such as finding work for young jobless, helping the elderly and building better relations with Beijing.

Hong Kong has one of the highest unemployment rates in Asia – at 6.9 percent in May-July. One in six of its seven million people live below the poverty line. Opinion polls show economic issues remain the biggest concern for most residents, although calls for more democracy are growing.

As part of a strategy to focus pro-China votes in DAB hands, some lawmakers who were seen as weaker candidates have dropped out of the polls, analysts say.

Funded by wealthy business people with close ties to Beijing, the DAB has deep pockets and has endeared itself to the working class by providing various community services.

But its fortunes turned in 2003 when voters punished it in district elections for backing a government plan to enact an unpopular anti-subversion law.

An opinion poll in July found 78 percent of respondents were dissatisfied with the DAB, while 58 percent supported the democracy camp to win a majority in the legislature.

The party has recognised the risks of allying with an unpopular Beijing-chosen government.

“This is our toughest election. Due to our blind support for the government in the past, we now have to work to win back voter confidence,” said Ip Kwok-him, DAB vice-chairman.

Despite Beijing’s pledge to give Hong Kong a wide degree of autonomy, China has been actively working behind the scenes to boost the party’s chances in the election, commentators say.

However, in recent months, the party has tried to distance itself from the unpopular local government to try to convince voters that it can be tough on the administration. It has voted down some contentious policies and even agitated for the resignations of senior officials for various blunders. “We will monitor the government rigorously,” Ma said.

<B>Tan Ee Lyn</B>