Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said on Wednesday he was confident of victory as he cast his vote in India?s staggered election, but exit polls showed his coalition struggling to get a majority.

Television stations predicted Vajpayee?s Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies would win between 245 and 282 seats in the 545-seat parliament, after exit polls from the fourth phase of the five-stage vote.

Wednesday?s voting was concentrated in the northern Hindi heartland or ?cow belt?, a BJP stronghold. The final stage takes place on May 10, with results expected on May 13.

Vajpayee called the election six months early, hoping to cash in on his personal popularity, a strong economy, improving ties with old foe Pakistan and a bumper harvest after a good monsoon.

But his ?India Shining? campaign has failed to resonate with the millions of impoverished rural Indians, catching the BJP off guard and spooking the country?s financial markets.

Investors have followed every twist and turn of the exit polls as fears mounted that a new government might move slowly on key economic reforms if forced to haggle with minor parties for support.

Vajpayee, 79, asked for a strong mandate for a new five-year term as he voted in Lucknow, capital of Uttar Pradesh, the nation?s most populous and politically pivotal state.

Asked if his coalition would retain its majority, Vajpayee smiled and said: ?Yes. I am confident.?

But exit polls ? which have a mixed track record in India ? pointed towards the possibility of a hung parliament.

Four of the five polls on Wednesday showed the BJP and its allies falling just short of a majority, with NDTV predicting they would win between 245 and 265 seats. At the other end of the spectrum, Star News projected 270 to 282 seats.

There is little doubt the BJP will emerge the largest party in the new parliament and the front runner to form the next government. The better they do, the stronger the coalition that is likely to emerge, analysts said.

Opposition gains

?Anything above 250 (for the BJP and its allies) and they are home and dry,? said columnist Prem Shankar Jha. ?It won?t be difficult for them to get the rest of the support for a majority and form a government.

?But if they get anything between 240 and 245 then it?s a difficult task, because here we are talking about nearly 30 seats and that would be difficult to manage.?

Voters from seven states went to the polls on Wednesday, from the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir and the farmlands of Uttar Pradesh to the deserts of Rajasthan and the wild tribal regions of remote northeastern states.

Separatist violence erupted in Kashmir, where one person was killed and 30 wounded in a spate of grenade attacks, but voting elsewhere was largely peaceful.

Wednesday?s voting, for 83 seats, was the last real chance for the BJP to cement its parliamentary position and the party and its allies appeared to have won between 47 and 59 seats compared to 40 in 1999, according to exit polls.

It has little presence in the more than 180 seats in next week?s final round, in which it will rely on regional allies.

The opposition Congress party has done better than expected, boosted by the late entry of Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi, the charismatic children of Congress leader Sonia Gandhi, and the latest generation of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty to enter politics.

Exit polls predicted Congress and its allies would win between 167 and 205 seats nationally, up from 140 last time.

The election, staggered over three weeks to allow security forces to move from one hot spot to another, has failed to fire the enthusiasm of many of India?s 670 million eligible voters.

Turnout reached between 50 and 55 percent in Wednesday?s round, compared with a national average of 60 percent in 1999.

There was voting in just one constituency in Kashmir on Wednesday and turnout was only 16 per cent in Anantnag after separatists called for a boycott and militants threw grenades in 10 places, most of them at polling booths.

Y.P. Rajesh