?All sides have entered the Last Chance Saloon, whether they want to accept it or not,? said a diplomat as Greek, Turkish and Greek and Turkish-Cypriot diplomats arrived at Lucerne in Switzerland in late February for UN-brokered talks on reuniting Cyprus. But that was actually only the second last chance saloon. With no progress at Lucerne, the caravan has now moved to Burgenstock for a final week of talks ? and this time it really is the last chance.

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan arrived in Burgenstock on Saturday, soon to be followed by Greek Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan. Either they and the two Cypriot governments all agree by 31 March on a negotiated deal that will then be put to a referendum in both parts of the divided island, or the Secretary-General?s own proposed settlement will be put to the voters instead. Cyprus officially joins the European Union on 1 May, so everybody needs a final answer by then.

If both communities on the island say 'yes' to the deal, then everybody lives more or less happily ever after. The problem is that not everybody is equally motivated to say ?yes?.

The Turkish-Cypriots, according to the results of last December?s election, are almost evenly divided on reunification. They long for an end to their isolation (nobody except Turkey recognises their breakaway republic) and for the prosperity that would come from EU membership, but they are apprehensive about being a minority in a Greek-dominated country again. But the UN proposal is for a bi-national federation with a weak central government, so they will probably bring themselves to vote 'yes' in the end.

The real question mark hangs over the Greek-Cypriots, because they really don?t have a strong incentive to say ?yes?. Thanks to the fact that their ?mother country?, Greece, is already in the EU while Turkey is not, they are guaranteed membership of the EU regardless of how they vote in the referendum. (Greece threatened to veto the whole process of EU expansion if Cyprus did not gain unconditional entry.) So if they vote ?no? to the deal and the Turkish-Cypriots vote ?yes?, they become EU citizens anyway, while the Turkish-Cypriots are left out in the cold.

It?s not that the Greek-Cypriots really want to kill the deal and leave the island divided, with the northern part occupied by Turkish troops. It?s just that their huge negotiating advantage tempts them to pitch their demands too high on issues like the return of Greek-Cypriot refugees to their former homes in the north and the expulsion of mainland Turkish settlers who have arrived in Cyprus since 1974.

The Turkish-Cypriots may simply refuse to make that sort of deal, preferring the more even-handed UN proposal to be put to the referendum on 20 April. And then the Greek-Cypriots offered significantly less than their maximum demands, might vote against it.

?The process in Burgenstock will be very intensive,? said the UN?s Cyprus mediator, Alvaro de Soto, last week. ?All involved will have to show the necessary political will.? But what if they do not? What if the referendum has to be on the UN formula for a settlement instead, and then the Greek-Cypriots reject it?

For thirty years the international community has withheld recognition from the ?Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus?, insisting that the only legitimate government on the island is the one in Greek-majority southern Cyprus. But ? if the Greek side becomes a member of the EU (after voting 'no' to reunification), then they would represent only the southern part?.The Turkish-Cypriot side would not be punished. The Turkish-Cypriot position would be appreciated.? There may be a deal yet.