Millions of Indians began voting yesterday in four Hindi heartland states in polls that could set the scene for federal elections due next year.

More than 400,000 police have been deployed in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, where almost 95 million people are eligible to vote.

Braving the early morning chill of the northern winter, voters slowly began trickling into polling booths soon after they opened at 0230 GMT .

The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ? which leads the national coalition government ? is expected to make solid gains against the Congress party, which provides the main national opposition but holds power in the four states.

Opinion polls tip the BJP to win the most important state, Madhya Pradesh, and possibly Chhattisgarh as well. But despite positive polls, Congress may also be in trouble in Rajasthan, the second most important of the four, where it has not paid public servants for more than two months and where a pivotal royal family is supporting the BJP.

Although all four contests are a straight two-horse race between the BJP and Congress, they are not a full dress rehearsal because local personalities and local issues, such as power, water and jobs, will be the deciders.

?I have come to vote because this government should be changed,? said shopkeeper Govind Ram in the Madhya Pradesh capital, Bhopal. ?See the condition of roads, the power situation??

Nevertheless, the BJP has dubbed the vote ?semi-finals? to next year?s national ballot. ?There is little doubt that the template for the final of 2004 will be set by the outcome in the four... states,? said the Hindustan Times, adding the results would influence smaller parties in choosing who to ally with next year.

Some analysts say a strong showing by the BJP ? winning two or more states ? could tempt it to call an early national election to cash in on the gains and a general sense of optimism after good monsoons.

The national election must be held by October, but a poll between late April and September is unlikely because of the immense difficulties posed by summer, when temperatures soar to more than 50 degrees Celsius in the north, and the monsoon downpours and flooding begin.

New campaigning rules restricting the use of loudspeakers and posters ? plus a general feeling of powerlessness among voters outside the cities ? have made the elections dull and timid by Indian standards.

Terry Friel