Sixteen US soldiers killed by the Iraqi resistance in September, thirty-three killed in October -- and eighteen killed in the first two daysof November. More and more American casualties in the north of Iraq around Mosul, an area that was relatively free of anti-US attacks until last month. The disarray in the occupying forces grows more acute.

"Certainly these attacks seem to have been the operations of foreign fighters," said Brigadier-General Mark Hertling, deputy commander of the 1st Armored Division, after four suicide bombs in one day in Baghdad left dozens dead and hundreds injured. Not at all, said Major-General Raymond Odierno, commander of the 4th Infantry Division:

"My initial feeling is, this is former regime loyalists doing this with maybe minor coordination with a few people that might not be from Iraq originally."

It's a mess that's going from bad to worse -- and yet, we are constantly told, it would be even worse if the United States pulled out of Iraq now. All the American and British pundits say so, even the relatively sensible ones like John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org: "The problem at the moment is that if they turn the country over to the Iraqi Governing Council...some guy with a moustache is going to come in and shoot them and say he's in charge."

But is that really true? Imagine that George W. Bush and his chief political strategist Karl Rove called in some independent advisers and asked them how to manage policy and perceptions in the twelve months left until next year's presidential election. It's a safe bet that they would identify the Iraq quagmire as the biggest obstacle to Mr Bush's re-election.

If they were worth their salt, they would then recommend that he pull US forces out of Iraq now: announce that America's mission in Iraq has been accomplished with the destruction of the Baathist regime, and ask United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan to take over the task of building a civil society and a decent government in the country.

The United Nations would still need troops to maintain order in Iraq, of course, but large numbers of blue-helmeted soldiers from othercountries would almost certainly become available if US troops were all pulled out. It is suspicion about US motives and unwillingness to work under US command that currently keeps those countries away.

Would that stop all the bombs and ambushes? Probably not, but it would eliminate the mistrust of American motives among ordinary Iraqis that currently gives the resistance fighters a friendly and supportive environment to operate it. It would get US troops out of the firing line. And it would NOT necessarily end with some 'guy in a moustache' walking inand taking over.

To argue that this is the only alternative to a continued American occupation reveals a deep contempt for the aspirations and abilities of Iraqis. The Iraqi Governing Council, purged of obvious Pentagon carpet-baggers like Ahmed Chalabi, would represent most of the more powerful groups in Iraqi society. If it got real power and credibility under a UN administration, it might well succeed in holding free national elections within six months or so. Iraqis are not fools, and want to see their country reach a democratic harbour.

So why doesn't the Bush administration grasp this lifeline? Perhaps because it would require the wholesale replacement of all the powerful people in the administration who advocated the Iraq adventure, and probably also the cancellation of all the lucrative contracts and oil concessions that Mr Bush's business cronies and campaign contributors think are coming their way. But what else can he be thinking might come along to ease his path to a second term in 2004?

Another terrorist attack on American soil would be more likely to drive panicked voters back into Mr Bush's arms than to turn them against his administration. If the terrorists can't get it together, then what Mr Bush needs is another short, victorious war against an alleged 'terrorist state'. Syria would do just fine.

Gwnynne DYER