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Bush puts pressure on Palestinian PM

11 septembre 2003, 20:00

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Bush said ?time would tell? if the US could work together with the new Palestinian Prime Minister, Ahmed Qurei, who confirmed he had accepted the post on Wednesday. Despite the bloodshed, Bush insisted the roadmap peace plan was still in place.

Israeli missiles earlier targeted the home of a senior member of the militant group Hamas, Mahmoud Zahar, killing his son and a bodyguard and injuring 25 people.

?I still believe strongly that the two states living side by side in peace is a hopeful vision for the future of the Middle East. The roadmap is still there,? Bush said.

But he urged Qurei, widely known as Abu Ala, to take action against militant networks. ?His job, if he?s interested in a two-state solution, is to consolidate power within his administration, to get the security forces under control, all the security forces, and then unleash those security forces against the killers,? he said. Mahmoud Abbas stepped down as Prime Minister at the weekend over a struggle with President Yasser Arafat for control of the security forces.

Bush also said Israel had a responsibility ?to create the conditions necessary for those in the Palestinian Authority who do believe in peace... to prevail?.

Israel in shock

The air strike against Zahar prompted the military wing of Hamas to threaten to attack ?houses and tower blocks? in Israel in retaliation. The latest Israeli strike caused extensive damage to a mosque, and left huge plumes of smoke rising from Zahar?s neighbourhood.

Correspondents say he has now gone into hiding. The raid on Gaza City was condemned as ?cowardly? by Qurei. Israel was stunned by Tuesday?s two suicide attacks, which killed 15 Israelis. The military wing of Hamas claimed responsibility for the twin bombings, describing them as revenge for Israeli attacks.

Hours after a suicide bomber set off explosives at a crowded bus stop near Tel Aviv, another bomber detonated a device outside a café in Jerusalem.

The first bombing took place outside Tsrifin army base, in the Tel Aviv suburb of Rishon Letsion, killing eight people waiting at a bus stop and injuring around 30. The second suicide bombing was in the heart of west Jerusalem, at the crowded Café Hillel, on one of the liveliest streets in the city.

Seven people as well as the bomber are believed to have died in that attack and about 30 were wounded. The violence caused Israeli Prime Minister to cut short a visit to India.

Analysis

Will Arafat be expelled?

Two big decisions will face the Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon. Will he agree to the increasing demands from within his own cabinet for the expulsion of Yasser Arafat and will Israel invade Gaza to hunt for the Hamas leaders against whom it has declared war?

The word from Sharon?s officials in India is that Arafat will be kept ?on a short leash?, but that he will not be expelled immediately. Another option is under examination ? putting him into ?solitary confinement.?

This would involve the Israelis ringing his already confined headquarters in the West Bank town of Ramallah, perhaps limiting or even cutting off his visitors and barring his phone calls in some way.

It is an option favoured by the Vice Premier Ehud Olmert, the former Mayor of Jerusalem and a long time Likud party loyalist.

?The choice we face isn?t between expelling him or leaving the existing situation,? he told. ?There is another alternative ? to bring him to a situation in which he will be in his headquarters as a prisoner in solitary confinement, isolated from his surroundings.?

The arguments for expulsion have been led by the Defence Minister, Shaul Mofaz, who said recently that it had been a mistake for Israel not to have taken this move months ago. American opposition has been a key factor in restraining Sharon. He has a valuable relationship with President Bush and until the US signals otherwise, is unlikely to agree to the expulsion demands. The American position has not changed publicly. Privately, the Israelis hope that the American view has shifted to at least being ready to think of ?when?, not ?if.?

Expelling the veteran leader would produce huge diplomatic problems for Israel. After all, he is the elected Palestinian leader. He could be expected to roam the world giving speeches and causing problems for Israel. And where would he be sent? How would he be captured? Israeli troops would have to physically go into his office. The risk to his person would be considerable. Curbing Arafat is just one part of a two-pronged Israeli approach. They blame him for undermining Mahmoud Abbas who resigned as Palestinian Prime Minister. They want to destroy Arafat?s influence in order to pave the way for more moderate Palestinians to lead peace talks. That at least is the hope.

The reality is that the other half of the strategy, the war against Hamas, will probably take priority. The Israeli Government believes that it must crush Hamas before any political progress can be made and that it must be crushed in any case to improve security for Israelis.

Twice in recent days it has launched missile attacks against Hamas leaders in Gaza. Twice it has failed to kill them.

The prospect of a ground attack therefore must be real.

And in the meantime, the construction of the fence or barrier around the West Bank, and in places into it, will continue. It is constantly pointed out by Israelis that there have been no suicide bomb attacks launched from Gaza because Gaza is already surrounded with a fence.

In all this, the roadmap lies unused.

Paul Reynolds

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