More so than in Britain and France, a strong wind of change is blowing over the US. Republicans have lost their dominance in Washington D.C., and George W. Bush is trying his best to correct his negative legacy. Politically weakened, he is however fully aware that it will be hard to correct the overall perception that Democrats will win over the White House after eight years.

« George Bush, after the terrorists? attacks of September 2001, set about reordering the world, sending troops into Afghanistan and Iraq, trying to establish a Bush doctrine based on pre-emtive force and exporting democracy [?] Not only the world turned out to be a little more complicated than Mr Bush presumed ; his administration has hitherto proved woefully incompetent at executing his dreams. As a result, Mr Bush?s prospects in 2007 look, at first sight, pretty glum », analyses John Miclethwait, editor-in-chief of The Economist.

The complexity of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan ? where American troops are trapped in never-ending wars ? as well as the uncertainty issues of North Korea and Iran are constantly impacting on the Republicans? administration.

« The killing has continued? »

Some days ago, at a conference in Kuala Lumpur, the former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said : « Bush and Blair should be put to trial. They should answer about the 500,000 Iraqi children who died and about the lies to justify their war. » At the same, in Washington, Bush, in his annual State of the Union Address, urged America to give his new Iraq strategy a chance to work. « Twenty-eight months have passed since September 11 without an attack on American soil ? and it is tempting to believe that the danger is behind us [?] The killing has continued in Bali, Jakarta, Casablanca, Riyadh, Mombasa, Jerusalem, Istanbul, and Baghdad. The terrorists continue to plot against America and the civilised world. And by our will and courage, this danger will be defeated. »

Bush?s call for support has not con-vinced Democrats. « The majority of the nation no longer supports the way this war is being fought ; nor does the majority of our military. We need a new direction, an immediate shift toward strong regionally-based diplomacy, a policy that takes our soldiers off the streets of Iraq?s cities, and a formula that will in short order allow our combat forces to leave Iraq », strongly pointed out Senator Jim Webb in the official response by the Democratic Party to George W. Bush?s State of the Union Address.

Apart from the foreign policy, Demo-crats have started campaining about domestic priorities : improving education and healthcare for all Americans, reviewing the wages and salaries of workers, restoring the vitality of New Orleans, under the theme « America is two nations, one rich and one so poor that it cannot cater for its people ».

The race to succeed Bush has already started among the Democrats while they are blocking him at every turn. Candidates for the presidency in 2008 have been identified. The most famous among them is Hillary Clinton, senator of New York. The wife of Bill Clinton has almost everything to win (experience, money, star power).

Other Democratic hopefuls are John Edwards (former running-mate of John Kerry in 2004), Evan Bayh (former governor of Indiana) and Barack Obama (the only black senator). If Mr Bayh can claim more executive experiences, the media already has his rising stars : Hillary, the first woman to be president ? And Mr Obama, the first black man in the White House ?

On the Republican, Senator John Mc Cain is the front-runner to succeed George Bush. He is considered to be a war-hero having been « tortured » by the Vietcong !

Blair?s end?

George Bush?s most faithful ally outside America is also retiring? at the age of 54. After ten years of Tony Blair, Britain will have a new Prime minister. What is noticeable in this case is that Blair who has been the most successful Labour Prime minister ? three elections in a row ! ? is being forced away from 10 Downing Street.

To an audience of servicemen Tony Blair stated last week that « he wanted to keep a strong American alliance and for us as a nation to be as willing to fight terrorism and pay the cost of that fight wherever it may be ». But he acknowledged that Britain?s armed forces were under strain fighting twin campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. And added : « Terrorism cannot be defeated by military means alone, but it can?t be defeated without it. »

Blair?s speech added to a climate of a turmoil. « After a decade in power, his legacy will be an overstretched army, navy and air force. It?s too late to have a 'debate', » said shadow Foreign Secretary William Hague. Left-wing MP John McDonnell, who intends to stand for the Labour leadership once Mr Blair resigns, said Mr Blair had made « catastrophic foreign policy mistakes ». Scottish National Party Leader Alex Salmond stated that Mr Blair had made the world « a more dangerous place » and was « clearly trying to foist that legacy onto his successor ».

French « racaille »

Finally, in France, after his 12-year presidency, Jacques Chirac will step down. The battle to take power is becoming fiercer and fiercer.

On one hand, the Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy is campaigning for a rupture with the past. He wants to distance himself from his RPR peers, President Chirac and Prime minister Dominique de Villepin. The two distrust Sarkozy, who took over the Gaullist Party. And on the other hand : Ségolène Royal, the left?s moderning face, who won her place over Laurent Fabius and Dominique Strauss-Khan.

The campaign is hi-tech, American style, but also bitter. The extrovert Sarkozy, who comments on almost all news reports (including the defense of newspapers?cartoons) has a populist talk on security, not far from far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Ségolène Royal is more of the defensive. She has accused aides of Sarkozy of dirty tricks in a row over tax. « The campaign launched by the UMP is a dishonest campaign? a campaign of thugs, » she said. She used the French word « racaille » to describe the tactics ? an evocative term that Interior Minister Sarkozy used once to describe mainly rioters in the suburbs. In less than three months, one of them will take office in l?Élysée.

Bush, Blair and Chirac on their way out, a new generation of leaders is rising?

N. S.