The political pot is on the boil again but what concoction will be served up eventually is anybody?s guess, you would have to be a soothsayer to come up with the right answer. Even before the revocation of the leader of MMSM as a minister, the political punters were already busy forecasting the shape of future potential alliances. It is worth examining the possibilities in greater details.

I will start by briefly considering the motley group of minor parties; the fact is that they are hardly in a position to dictate any conditions but to accept or reject what is on offer from the other major parties. Let us rather concentrate on the big three starting with the MSM because this is the only major party that is neither contemplating nor already in an alliance with another party. At present, any possible coalition with the MMM seems to be out because of the uncompromising stance taken by its leader concerning the post of prime minister.

What compounds an already complex situation for the MSM is that since then, the MMM has decided that it would be the senior partner in any future alliance; in essence that must mean that it intends to field the greater number of candidates at the next general elections. So let us just assume for a minute that the MSM changes its standpoint and accepts to share the post of prime minister with the MMM in a new alliance and find itself in power again. In this new configuration, it is quite feasible that when it is the turn of the leader of the MSM to be at the helm of the country, he could find himself leading a minority government should there be a scission of the said alliance or always at the mercy of a no confidence vote. So what?s the alternative for it?

Possibly form an alliance with the Labour party, this is most improbable because its leader would hardly get a sniff of the primeministership as the leader of the Labour party, the current incumbent has ruled out any possibility of sharing that position. Anyway, the hardcore of the Labour Party would never accept such an idea, considering the difference in their respective current political standings. The third possibility is to go alone in any future general elections and negotiate with the leading parties after the results but as it is unlikely to obtain a high number of seats, it would mean negotiating from a point of weakness with very little bargaining power.

The fourth alternative is to be the locomotive in an alliance with a number of minor parties but again this is not likely to achieve the desired outcome. So for the MSM, it must be back to the drawing board to find the right formula so as to be part of the power sharing in any future government. Now let us consider the position of the MMM. Having made it clear that it would be the senior partner in any alliance, it would find it extremely difficult to shift from that position immaterial of the identities of potential allies. In actual fact, it should be able to maintain this standpoint in an alliance with any other political party except perhaps the Labour party because the latter is likely to be intransigent when it comes to the allocation of the number of tickets for the general elections and the post of prime minister.

Furthermore, I think that the majority of the MMM members and supporters would be up in arms if their party was to deflect from the stated objective of being senior partner in any alliance. So the MMM might be forced to go it alone in a general election or in coalition with a string of minor parties, a mirror tactic adopted by the Labour party at the last general elections. The Labour party is perhaps in the best position, first being currently in power, it can decide on the opportune time to go to the polls alone or leading a coalition of other parties that may wish to join it with the clear understanding that they will only play second fiddle in any event and be contended with whatever crumbs they are offered. Whatever permutations are finalized at the end of the day, it?s more than likely that either the Labour party or the MMM with or without allies will come up near the top of the pile after the next general elections. What happens next is in the lap of the gods.

C.C.C</B>