<B>By Nicholas Rainer</B>

Doesn?t Mauritius look splendid in green, her rolling hills and undulating fields bedecked in chlorophyll? Even the usually parched Signal Mountain is an explosion of verdant hues. Sadly though, this tropical luxuriance is as accurate a reflection of the permanence of our water resources as George W. Bush?s recent comments that ?the war in Iraq is noble, it is necessary, and it is just?, are of the sentiments of the average Iraqi.

There has been much talk of late of Peak Oil, which according to fount of all online knowledge, Wikipedia, is ?the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline?. Depending on who you listen to, Peak Oil has either already been attained or will be in the next couple of years. The frenzy to secure the world?s dwindling oil supplies has been precipitated by the emergence of the Chinese and Indian economies and their consequent energy needs. In turn, this has given rise to power struggles and even wars that will shape the world system in the forseeable future.

Yet the strife caused by the battle for black gold could well be dwarfed by the one for water. In February 2004, the Observer reported that the Pentagon had submitted a top secret document to the Bush Administration in which it predicted the eruption of ?nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting? by the year 2020! And what, I hear you ask, will instigate such horrifying events? Terrorism? Not a chance. An asteroid? Nope. Rambo 5? Close but no cigar.

?The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies?, the article went on to say.

Climate change is already wrecking weather patterns the world over while pollution is contaminating increasing amounts of surface and ground water. The disappearance of wetlands is probably not helping much either.

Those who are kept awake at night by the spectre of Peak Oil might soon be haunted by a new, far more frightening bogeyman, Peak Water. And if as one pundit opined, ?the US economy needs oil like a junkie needs heroin?, imagine how strongly the world?s sole superpower feels about its water needs.

In Mauritius all seems peachy. For now, that is. A highly informative report by the Mauritius Research Council?s Thematic Working Group on Water Resources (the Internet link to which is provided opposite) explained that ?surface storage if operated judiciously could last for at least one year and the aquifers could withstand two consecutive drought years?. Unsustainable development is already putting much strain on our reservoirs and aquifers. The latter can take tens of thousands of years to replenish; so plundering them is tantamount to depriving future generations of vital water resources.

Aristotle wrote, ?One swallow does not make a spring?. Similarly, one year of munificent rainfall does mean that the following years will be as forthcoming. A couple of dry years could plunge the country headfirst into a water crisis (pun intended). Pre-emptive action is the only surefire way to avert this harrowing possibility.