Taiwan welcomed the resignation on Sunday of Chinese military chief Jiang Zemin, seeing fraught relations with the island’s arch-foe becoming more stable under his successor, Hu Jintao.

But analysts cautioned against expecting a cooling of tensions, saying that while Jiang was seen as a hardliner, Hu would be just as uncompromising when it came to the sensitive matter of Taiwan independence.

“Hu Jintao will probably be more flexible in his approach, but one cannot expect Hu Jintao to abandon the ‘one-China principle’ because that is the policy that China always insists on,” said Andrew Yang, a military analyst in Taipei.

The “one China principle” claims Taiwan as part of China and is the consensus in Beijing’s Communist Party leadership.

“If Taiwan political reforms step over the line, Hu certainly will use harsh measures as well,” said Yang of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a private think tank.

Jiang handed the top job in China’s military to President and Communist Party chief Hu Jintao, completing the first orderly succession in Chinese Communist history.

With leadership of the military, Hu takes over responsibility for China’s response to any move by Taiwan towards formally declaring independence, a step China has said would result in the use of force to recover the island it sees as a renegade province.

<B>No immediate changes </B>

“Jiang had a stronger grip on power, while Hu looks for more opinions before making decisions, and that will make for more practical policy making,” said Chiu Tai-san, vice chairman and spokesman for the Mainland Affairs Council, which formulates Taiwan’s policy towards China.

“China’s policies should be more stable and not so unpredictable,” said Chiu, looking to Hu to lead China as part of a collective of leaders who would not see Taiwan as a priority. “Hu is a consensus leader. His priorities are first the economy, then China-U.S. relations, and third relations with Taiwan,” Chiu said.

Chiu and analysts said more time was needed to see if the leadership change would result in a change in Taiwan policy.

“Jiang represents the hardliners, who will now have to reorganise themselves. But, we will have to wait and see if actual policy towards Taiwan will change,” said political scientist Philip Yang.

No major changes in Chinese policies were expected before the US presidential elections in November and Taiwan’s parliamentary elections in December, analysts said.

The Taiwan elections will be key because if President Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party and their allies win a majority, they could push through Chen’s plan to adopt a new constitution by 2008.

China is worried the new constitution will formally assert Taiwan sovereignty by changing the island’s official name – a move that Beijing has warned would cross the red line between peaceful reunification and war.

Although Chen has ruled out any sovereignty issues in constitutional reforms, the Taiwan Strait is still regarded by analysts as among the most dangerous flashpoints in Asia. “The bottom line for China is that there will be no compromise over the territory and sovereignty issue,” said Andrew Yang.

<B>Kirby Chien</B>