If you take some sand and sprinkle it on a table, it will gradually build up into a small hill. A point will be reached, however, when further addition of sand will not make the hill rise any further. You would think that a stable condition has been reached, but in fact the sand pile has reached a state of unbalance, and it is impossible to predict what will happen if you add just one more grain of sand. It might cause either a small avalanche, or a medium one, or it might cause such a big burst of sand that the whole hill would crumble altogether.

When the sand pile stops rising (and avalanches start to occur), the slope of the sand pile has attained its point of maximal steepness. And phenomena like these abound in nature; they can be found in earthquakes, evolution, economics and traffic jams ? although the point of maximal steepness, here, may mean different things, and has nothing to do with the slope of a hill. When it comes to earthquakes, the earth?s crust tends to organise itself to a certain degree of steepness through the shifting of continents and volcanic eruptions. And the ?grain of sand? that might perhaps trigger an earthquake (eventually a tsunami) might be the firing of a rocket by mainland China, or a nuclear test conducted by India or Pakistan.

As for social explosions, examples are not lacking in history. In 1914, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie was the ?grain of sand? that started the avalanche. It crumbled the whole edifice of political Europe, and triggered the First World War. In 1939, history repeated itself and the ?grain of sand? that caused a second world war, this time, was the invasion of Poland by Hitler.

In 1999, the death of Kaya in his prison cell was the ?grain of sand? that started riots all over the island. But what about the situation right now? Has ?our hill of sand? attained its slope of maximal steepness?

I hope not, but nonetheless politicians should pay heed to what they say and not make our ?hill of sand? become any steeper. A single grain of sand might be all it takes that would cause that big avalanche ? that would engulf us all. It might be something very trivial, really? It might just be a banal road accident where one of ?nou bann? is inadvertently run down by a car whose driver happens to be one of ?bann la?.

<B>Jean Lindsay DHOOKIT</B>