In these early years of the 21st century, planet Earth continues to face innumerable problems of civilisation: with environment and development, with conflict about human rights, with poverty and equity, both here in Mauritius and globally.

We continue our exploration on how to build tomorrow?s world.

In a UNESCO/UNEP document of 1991( Teaching for a Sustainable World, Ed: John Fein,Michael Atchia, Wimala Ponniah, Orlando Rose),we explored the crucial difference between probable and preferable futures.

Probable futures are all those which seem likely to come about. They are often arrived at by the extrapolation of current trends. Forecasts are then made about what is expected to happen.

Most of the planning carried out by Governments(on short 3, 4 or 5 year mandates), by business and industry in search of quick returns, is of this nature. When people think about the future it is often their image of the probable future that comes to mind.

Much of the current debate about petrol and fossil fuels for example, is about how many dollars for a barrel of crude in 5/10/20 years time, not about what ideally the state that this planet should be in (with renewable, largely solar, eolar and bio-fuels, technically in place and available to all!) .

?Preferable futures are all those which people feel should come about. Such desirable futures are based on our hopes, aspirations and dreams. They embody our notions of what a better world might be like. Throughout history it has been such visions which have inspired struggles for better working conditions, the right to free speech and the right to vote. We benefit today from what others fought for in the past, inheriting crucial elements of their preferable futures?.

Studying alternative future trends can greatly improve the value of present day decisions. A preferable future for Mauritius, transport-wise, is a main rapid transit system running on electricity from new renewable energy sources, plus local biofuel and pedal linkages to people?s homes; a probable future given the wrong orientation would be great buses lanes, modern diesel buses, trained bus personnel but not a drop of diesel to run them on!

Incorporating Future Studies in education is essential because ?this is the only part of history still open to change?. How is that done? In short by defining a (National) Curriculum framework which is continually updated to meet intelligently thought-out futures, not sticking to teaching the ?bagasse? which is still cluttering our curricula, including those of Cambridge S.C. and HSC.

War and peace.

A present day reality and hence a probable future(if nothing radical is done) is that when ethnic, religious and linguistic diversities clash, as in the Middle East, then war and its modern form, terrorism, prevail.

How long has it taken for the international community(often meaning no one in particular!) to wake up and intervene in Darfur where real people are suffering uprooting, destruction of their resource base, mass rape and even death because of ethnic and religious differences?

How long before we intervene in Zimbabwe and release this people to build a better future, back to the tremendous hopes raised at independence in 1982?. An intervention which requires a new model, new patterns and new partnerships(the Iraq example having proved to be a disaster).

A preferable future, as many have defined it, is based on peaceful living achieved through non violence/unaggressiveness/uncontentious behaviour, well-regulated, logical & tidy systems of governance; through a state of plenty, of health and happiness of people; achieved through equity, sharing, freedom, justice, education, sustainable development for all ;through conciliation/reconciliation/negotiation/mediation/accommodation/?keeping cool?/friendship/hospitality, prayer; through being welcoming/amiable/generous/loving, being educated and civilised.

Locally, a probable future, if recent and present trends of forceful monopolisation of every sector by one community continues unchecked, is a pre-1990 South-African situation, with all the dangers for ?peace? which systematic exclusion carries.

A preferable future (most likely to be so, one knowing the Mauritian sense of Harmony and need for peaceful living) is a re-engineered society, open to all, on the basis of democracy and equity.

Wishful thinking? YES, may be, but look at the alternative of this world as it is now. Once one?s ?house? descends into to chaos, as in some parts of Sri Lanka, in Gaza and Baghdad and elsewhere, putting it back in order is very arduous. Liberia has recently recovered peaceful living after 25 years of chaos, with so much suffering along the way.

So to students I say, forcefully, have the daring to dream of the preferable future you would wish for you, your children and your country. And study subjects as well as acquire skills in consequence.

Dr. Michael ATCHIA [email protected]