The year or so leading up to the next general elections promises to be tumultuous. Whether founded or not, rumours are spreading like wildfire announcing the possible, if not yet probable, break-up of the MMM-MSM governmental alliance. The credibility of this premise is only enhanced by the proximity of the main parties on the political spectrum. Indeed, they all situate themselves somewhere on the left ideologically, even if they have all proven, at one time or another, that they are not altogether averse to right-wing thinking.

Whether the rumours are pure party politicking or a plausible eventuality, your guess is as good as any pundit?s. Yet the recent schadenfreude between Sir Anerood Jugnauth, president of the Republic and still influential player in the political arena, and Navin Rangoolam, leader of the opposition Labour party (LP), lends weight to the theory that a rift has opened between prime minister Paul Bérenger?s Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM) and Pravind Jugnauth?s Mauritian Socialist Movement (MSM). Despite Pravind?s claims that he is in charge of the MSM and that a rapprochement is definitely not on the horizon, the fact that his father and Ramgoolam met so lengthily raised a few eyebrows.

In addition, he admitted in a recent interview that divergences do exist between his party and the PM?s, especially on the electoral reform issue. He did however hasten to add that ?talk of an imminent rupture is pure fantasy?.

Commentators also mention several other factors as proof of shifting loyalties. The Labour victory in the Piton-Rivière du Rempart by-elections was pivotal as was the poor turnout at the MMM-MSM May Day rally. Bérenger hoped to use the latter event as a platform to announce that he would share with Pravind the ?winning formula? he had hatched at the opportune moment. Unfortunately for him, this tactic backfired as many, some of the party faithful included, perceived the move as an indication that the PM was treating his deputy somewhat disdainfully by not filling him in on what it would take to win.

Delicate balancing act

An MSM minister explains: ?I fully understand our partisans. In Bérenger?s place, I would have avoided saying that I already have a plan and that I will consult Pravind at a later date. Up to now, no one knows whether any consultations have taken place.? Whether the Piton-Rivière du Rempart by-elections were an indictment of the ruling alliance as a whole or solely the MSM is still a lively subject of debate.

Some insiders allege that the rot of the alliance is the result of something more systemic. ?If the leaders didn?t asphyxiate the youth and let them take a little more initiative, we would?ve been able to limit the damage?, bemoans an MP from the South. ?It?s no use ignoring the obvious, the MSM and the opposition are more attractive to younger voters. That?s a bad sign?, deplores a MMM MP from the East.

The trouble with rumours is that, if repeated often enough, they become believable, rather like the self-fulfilling prophecy. It?s an undeniable fact that there are tensions at the heart of the ruling alliance and that loyalties in politics are fickle, to say the least. The eventuality of an MSM-LP alliance would be justified if Pravind Jugnauth was truly worried about next year?s elections and wanted to keep a firm grasp on power in the immediate future.

Yet there is also a distinct possibility that he is looking at the bigger picture, namely the post-2005 era. The deputy prime minister himself shows no inclination to team up with Rangoolam. ?We are accomplishing a lot with the MMM and I guarantee that we will carry out our mandate. Our alliance with MMM will outlive 2005.?

For his part, Rangoolam has demonstrated shrewdness in exploiting, and even creating, the latent unease within the government. His ability to ?divide and conquer? is obvious, yet he will have to learn how to unite if he is to lead the country to better things. As of yet, he has proposed nothing really constructive and his political foresight is still questionable. In a recent interview, for example, he admitted that his castigation of Sir Anerood Jugnauth?s decision to accept the presidency was unfounded.

Whatever becomes of these rumours, the prime minister will have to pull off a delicate balancing act in the coming months. The best way to fend off his arch- political foe, Ramgoolam, will be to do his utmost to soothe concerns amongst the lower classes that he represents the elite. Indulging in the character assassination of the opposition leader will only lead to a further loss of credibility and give substance to the rumours.