The general trends that favoured the Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM) in the latest poll conducted by Synthèses-l’express last February, seem to have stayed the same. The second poll of the year led by the same institution gives an idea of the popularity of the various parties and political figures. 41% of persons questioned support prime minister Paul Bérenger’s party. It is in first position before the Labour party with 22% and the MSM with 17%.

The government alliance claims to be “very satisfied” with the poll results. “It is comforting to see that most people give their support to the governmental alliance. This proves that we are a serious team,” deputy prime minister Pravind Jugnauth proudly declared. 58% of the poll respondents find that the government has achieved positive results so far.

One would be inclined to believe that, if general elections were held these days, the MMM would certainly be re-elected. This is somewhat astonishing since there were signs that the ruling alliance was losing popularity recently – like the Mayday rallies where the Labour party gathered more supporters. However these statistics have to be studied with hindsight.

Although the MMM remains at the top, this party has nevertheless lost seven points compared to the last poll in February. If this trend goes on, there is a risk that the party may lose more popularity before the next elections. Even if the Labour party does not gain any advantage from this drop and itself faces a drop (1%), “the opposition has gained on the government since April 2003,” says Jean-François de Balbine, the manager of Synthèses.

However, Navin Ramgoolam’s party does not benefit from the drop in MMM popularity. While Labour could have benefited from the 7% loss of the MMM, it registers a fall of 1%. Of course, the latter is not a significant one.

This survey shows that the population is blasé about politics: around 20% of the persons questioned refused to give their opinion. Political leaders will thus have to be more creative to attract electors. Even the “social” budget of Pravind Jugnauth, a new approach of the economy, did not succeed in bringing more confidence in households. 40% of respondents think that the situation in Mauritius will not improve in spite of this budget.

From an individual point of view, Paul Bérenger keeps his advance over opposition leader Navin Ramgoolam and Pravind Jugnauth, his partner and MSM leader. 32% of the persons interviewed declared that they preferred Paul Bérenger as prime minister to Navin Ramgoolam (27%) and the leader of the MSM (19%).

What pleases the prime minister the most must be the level of satisfaction he generates. 70% of the poll respondents declared they were satisfied with Paul Bérenger as prime minister. But the question does not allow for any alternative; it is true that Paul Bérenger has more popularity than the two other leaders but people do not seem very enthusiastic. The future government definitely has to find ways of restoring the confidence of the population.