Voting begins in India?s restive Assam state today, kicking off polls in five states being seen as the biggest electoral test of the Congress party-led federal alliance since it won power in May 2004. In Assam, located in India?s northeast, a Congress government is fighting for re-election against a regional opposition party and the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Both opposition parties are highlighting the illegal immigration of Muslim migrants from Bangladesh. The two-phase vote in Assam will be followed by polling throughout April in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the tiny federal enclave of Pondicherry besides West Bengal in the east of the world?s largest democracy.

More than 130 million voters, more than the total registered electorate in Russia, are eligible to cast ballots. Political analysts say the Congress and its allies must win at least one of the four larger states if the coalition is to maintain its cohesion ? and keep sometimes fractious communist parties who support it from outside off its back. A victory in any two states would boost the alliance presiding over a booming economy and India?s rising stature in world affairs, they said. ?Though local issues will be at the fore, national issues like the overall economy and foreign policy will also be factors,? said Kuldip Nayar, independent political commentator. ?A win in two states will be a major psychological boost.?

But analysts also said that a poor showing could make the coalition?s communist allies, which provide it with a parliamentary majority but have refused to join the government, more aggressive as they seek to curb cautious economic reforms being pursued by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh?s administration. ?If the Congress does badly it will start looking weaker within the coalition,? said political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan.

<B>?Allies will become more demanding?

In two states, Congress is pitted directly against the communists, who recorded their best ever performance in the 2004 national poll and now have 61 lawmakers in the 545-member lower house of parliament. ?If it does badly, the Congress?s allies will become more restive and demanding, especially the left,? Nayar said. Reforms to further open up India?s economy ? particularly in sectors such as insurance, pensions and retailing ? could suffer as a result.

While the left is set to win West Bengal for an unprecedented seventh time since 1977, the Congress is fighting hard to retain Kerala where a communist alliance provides the main opposition. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress is a junior partner to its regional federal ally, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which is trying to defeat a local rival that rules the state.

In Pondicherry, the Congress is trying to retain power against the regional All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, which rules neighbouring Tamil Nadu. It says it expects federal programmes targeted at the rural poor ? such as a multi-billion-dollar employment guarantee scheme launched this year ? will pull in voters. ?This shows that development has taken centrestage (as an electoral issue) and this will percolate to voters,? a Congress spokesman, said.

But with the party facing tough battles in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal, analysts say that Assam will be critical to the government?s success or failure. The state, where a separatist revolt by the United Liberation Front of Asom militant group rumbles on, is the most populated in the turbulent northeast where there are more than two dozen insurgent groups. The Congress state government is banking on economic development in rural areas and Muslim voters, 30 % of the more than 17 m electorate, to see it through. Its rivals, including the BJP, say many among the Muslim community are illegal Bangladeshi migrants protected by the Congress in return for their support.

<B>Kamil Zaheer</B>