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Excess liquidity will harm prices in the long run (2/2)

21 novembre 2007, 00:00

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<U><B>Outlook for GBP-USD: Look for BoE?s rate cuts in 2008 (or as early as Dec)??? </B></U>

As for the GBP-USD rate, after rising to 2.10, a reversal to this upward trend looks to be well in place ? BoE?s Governor Mervyn King hinted towards potential rate cuts, with some analysts already expecting a 25bps reduction in the bank rate as early as December. For the time being, the market is looking for a total of 50bps of rate cuts throughout 2008, which (if materialized) could cause the GBP-USD to trade at around the 1.95 ? 2.00 range.

<B><U>Outlook for JPY-USD: Further unwinding of the JPY carry trade expected</B></U>

The concern in the international market now is not of a weak USD, but that of a strong JPY. Indeed, the outlook is for further unwinding of the yen carry trade, especially in an environment where the Bank of Japan is expected to resume the normalization of its interest rates with other countries.

<B>Summary table</B>

<I>rce : Reuters Poll (Poll date : 07 Nov 2007)</I>

<B>Contributed by Investment Professionals Ltd (Feedback: [email protected])

Disclaimer: </B>

This analysis report is provided by Investment Professionals Ltd. for information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an investment advice, an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any fund or stocks. This report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives and financial situation of any specific person who may receive-read this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any funds or stocks and should understand that future expectations may not be realized. Investors should note that the price or value of any funds or stocks may rise or fall. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Notes: t - represents number of months where the 3 month T-Bill is lagged to properly capture the real interest rate gained, E stands for estimate and F stands for forecast.

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