Petrol has already gone half-way to my prediction in l?express, 2005. ?Petrol at 200 US$ a barrel and then soon after unavailable at any price!? It?s like living under a Class 2 cyclone warning, with a satellite map indicating that the cyclone is heading straight towards Mauritius!

What to do? In summary, this means a gradual re-engineering of Mauritius, (within the period 2008-2020) to successfully thrive in the ?apres-pétrole? era. This means transforming an island dependent on imported petrol into one independent of petroleum for its energy needs. A quite realistic target would be for 50% of all our fuel needs to be met by locally produced biofuels by 2010. This would represent an annual net saving of at least 150-200 million US$ on our fuel ?import bill?, which now stands at 300-400 million US$ per year and is fast rising!

How? It means developing alternative energy supplies, together with solar and wind power developed on an industrial scale. It means changing lifestyles to learn to live happily with much less.

<B>AT HOME: SUSTAINABLE LIVING (SL)</B> is best defined as a lifestyle that could, hypothetically, be sustained for many generations without exhausting the natural resource base. SL means achieving self-sufficiency for oneself, one?s family and for the island, by consuming mainly things one produces. It means learning more about environmental impacts of daily life activities, getting your household water, energy, wastes, transported, supply of food and medicines audited and from there on take self-sufficiency measures. SL activities can and must involve everyone, for example the entire family going to work/school/shop/seaside by bicycle!

<B>IN SCHOOL</B>: The eventual National Curriculum for Mauritius for the 5 to 16 age group of compulsory schooling must incorporate, across the board, elements of Sustainable Development Education, now the subject of a World Decade of UNESCO for the period 2005-2015. The initiation of the young generation into the skills and attitude for sustainable living is crucial. There is now a sufficient number of good primary and secondary schools for most children to stop wasting commuting time in buses and private cars and simply walk to the (local) school. At the International Conference on EE organized by UNESCO & UNEP in Ahmedabad in November 2007, I proposed a road-map for Sustainable Development Education for the next 30 years, aimed at ?arresting degradation and start restoring/healing the Earth, while laying the foundations of a new Eco/Renewable-Energy society, stabilised within the capacity/limits of this planet and its leading species?. The idea gathered broad consensus with the participating scientists and educators as a basis and guideline for all future curricula and programme of studies.

<B>AT COUNTRY LEVEL</B>: I propose the setting up of a Sustainable Energy Development Programme, whose role would be to increase the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency, and to further develop a sustainable energy industry, in preparation for the coming exhaustion of petroleum stocks, and in order to allow Mauritius to cope with daily-life activities when the supply of imported oil suffers disruption, possibly resumed for a time, before being finally and completely interrupted.

In the transition period, as petrol becomes a scarce commodity, we must increase our storage capacity to cover 10 x the present. With immediate effect we must secure a diversity of suppliers of petroleum products to ensure continued supplies when the first crunches start. As a non oil-producer, it would be in our best interest to closely co-operate with these oil-multinationals operating here.

<B>IN PARLIAMENT</B>: Legislation is required to redefine the ENERGY EQUATION to enable Mauritius to obtain ?energy forever? through the use of renewable energy sources, taking Brazil as the example to follow: Brazilian energy policy makes it mandatory to blend ethanol with gasoline. Other aspects of this policy include regulations in order to set the blending rate, requires government agencies to buy 100 % ethanol-powered vehicles, offers storage credits to millers, maintains a differential tax break, favouring gasohol over pure gasoline, while popularising the concept of FLEXI-FUEL - vehicles able to run on a variety of fuels.

<B>THE ENERGY EQUATION</B> proposed by several of us at the Oil & Natural Gas Commission (ONGC) Forum of Ahmedabad, India, in November 2007 is a useful model. It calls for a sustainable energy policy for the future based on a mix such as solar+wind+hydro+geo+bio+new sources=sustainability.

Fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas) will continue as back-up during a transition of a few years, plus the Nuclear as an expensive, still unsafe option. This Energy Equation gathers consensus save for the Nuclear option, which some favour as a must in the equation while others absolutely oppose, due to the obvious dangers of nuclear pollution.

Such considerations have budget implications for the next 10-15 budgets, favouring sustainability and locally self-sufficient solutions, offering immediate support for investors in new energy technologies as these emerge, managing the pump-price of diesel (the driving-force of industry, specially SMEs), including producing bio-diesel, to keep it at affordable levels for as long as possible.

<B>BIOFUELS</B>: All out support for bio-fuels production, coupled with the recent plans to restructure the sugar-cane industry, and could result in a serious boost for our sugar industry through a new role as major contributor to ensuring the island?s energy sustainability. While the government and the industry have chosen the option to further centralise, reducing sugar mills to four (which makes economic sense), a large number of small units would better ensure the diversity required for survival. This could mean re-opening mills which have closed!

<B>REGIONAL FLEXI FARMS</B>: The transformation of a sugar-estate into a Regional Flexi farm (RFF) would be much more than a change of name! These RFF, or integrated farms, can be run by the private sector or on a co-operative basis. They would produce and supply gasohol, aquahol and bio-diesel, sugar and its by-products, agricultural products, methane gas for cooking and electricity, fed into the CEB National Grid or into new Regional Grids. Electricity generated by a diversity of sustainable means, namely through wind-farms, solar-farms, through small hydro-electric dams, bagasse, biomass and other bio-fuels etc. The Nuclear option is not considered feasible for Mauritius because of the very high costs, all the inherent dangers of atomic energy and perhaps because it?s far too early for nuclear fusion generators, which are likely to be a source of almost limitless energy in a few decades! The wave-energy and geo-thermal energy options require much more research before application on an industrial scale.

<B>AIR-TRANSPORT</B>: NO KEROSENE, NO PLANES, so we must adapt our travel habits and more importantly re-engineer our tourist industry to respond to rising fuel costs and hence costs of air-tickets. The average European tourist who can now afford Mauritius may soon return to closer-to-home destinations. In this context, IRS schemes may be more income-generating than short-stay visitors.

<B>LAND TRANSPORT</B>: Can we afford the LRT before 2010? Can we afford NOT to have an LRT (utilising electricity generated from renewable sources) by 2020, when it may be the only mass transport system available?

<B>IN CONCLUSION</B>: Energy is one of the most fundamental requirements of modern society. We rely totally on energy, not only for our individual domestic, transportation, industrial and business needs, but for global economic development. On a world scale, I can predict that those individuals, companies and countries that first master the research in some key technical areas will prosper no end!

The Prime minister?s call (made at the launch of the Strategic Plan of the Academy of Science and Technology) for systematic world-wide techno-watch is a tool for identifying the latest technologies available or emerging, which we can develop and apply here.

Nations mastering the cyber field will gain tremendously, since in cyber matters geographical distances matter not, hence an ideal option for Mauritius and other small islands. How many small-island developing states will succeed this transition? Mauritius has all the brain-power needed to do so, provided all aboard work together. But No Development Plan can possibly succeed without sustainable and affordable energy supply to support it!

<B>Dr Michael ATCHIA [email protected]</I>